As you can see the blue spiral is drawn from the beginning and end of Wave A, and on a 1:1 scale, hits the peak of Wave C perfectly. This spiral ended up being a very good resistance level in this position at this scale. So with that knowledge you could expect that it would continue to act as resistance and that Wave E will probably not go past it. Based on...
The best advice I could ever give anyone about the market is to "Want What the Market Wants." Do not want what you want , that will produce anxiety and doubt. Align your personal beliefs with that of the market and then trading will flow like a calm river of success. So that raises the question: What does the market want? On a weekly timeframe, the market has...
Here is a quick try to EW count after the big drop which occured early January. To me this drop marked the end of ABC correction for 2014 falling wedge. We still need to break the big resistance trendline (big blue line in my chart if you zoom out) to be able to tell whether or not bear market has ended. Pretty clear impulse waves are defined. Feel free to...
I see a bottoming process here for crude. For the first time since the june 2014 decline began the ma's are flattening and even the 50 ma is pointing up now (50ma not shown) The bollinger band is narrowing in and todays price actually stopped at the lower daily bollinger band. I'd say price has set in the low on the 13th of jan and has completed it's first wave...
We saw some big drops occuring in thoses first days of 2015. The bleeding touched at 255 (April 2013 old ATH) and we pretty quickly came back to 275 which is very important price. 275 being at the same time : long-time support for 2014 end, 2014 lowest price, first fib. retracement if we consider $4->$1165 being Wave 3. Check my previous charts to have...
This is an update of a chart I made 10 days ago (check linked ideas). I've added some inner waves and some corrections. Yesterday's drop to $276 could have ended the (5) wave of C. You can zoom a bit to see the decomposition between (4) and potential (5). Long-term support, lowest-point after burst ($275), first level of fibonacci retracement are all pointing to...
DISCLAIMER: My ideas change all the time and very suddenly, sometimes majorly sometimes very slightly, (which is why I don't normally publish charts) so take this chart with a grain of salt and check the comments for updates. I am trying to avoid becoming too attached to this idea because there is a good chance it is wrong. Anyway... LONGER-TERM VIEW: It appears...
I've became interested in Elliott Waves lately and I tried many counts. Here is my try for a large time scaled EW and finding the end of 2014 bear market. Feel free to criticize it, even more welcomed if you got some experience in EW. A pretty obvious pattern is the corrective triangle, correcting the Dec. 2013 burst. In classical technical analysis I used to...
Everything worked as I had predicted (see the related idea). At present, there should be a correction after the failed breakout of the main resistance line (green). If you zoom, you will see an evening star forming, so there is a great possibility of short-term downward movement. Moreover, the bat like this is a signal of downward reversal:...
As can be seen in the chart the red marker was spot on. I do not paint these things just for fun, but when they hit the mark like this, it is extremely fascinating. :)
If wave3 confirmed, pullback on wave4 and completion of patterns on wave5. This setup is supported by 2 bearish patterns, bat and crab which coincide with a bullish 5-0.
Bearish patterns following EWs. Patterns predicting wave 3 ending, wave 4 ret. and ending wave 5
PA broke channel on wave 3 (complex abc) and twice in forming the wave 5 (complex abc). Those breakouts are very limited and the channel TL seems to attract the PA very strongly. Wave 5 completion expected @97.4 for a short on ABC correction or new EW sequence down.
As you can see with the attached links, that one went well. Why the update? Because I do not do the market, we all do, and with all due respect, I can see one possibility that is noteworthy. But to be sure, weekly I am still strong short on this pair, at 1,3550 I have to reconsider, at 1,40 well, then it is too late anyway. So besides all the short load I carry...
A pullback above the 38.2 (T1) could lead to 61.8 (T2).