DISCLAIMER: My ideas change all the time and very suddenly, sometimes majorly sometimes very slightly, (which is why I don't normally publish charts) so take this chart with a grain of salt and check the comments for updates. I am trying to avoid becoming too attached to this idea because there is a good chance it is wrong. Anyway...
LONGER-TERM VIEW: It appears that bitcoin is moving towards the final corrective move of wave 4 of the major cycle degree. The implications of this are grand in that wave 5 of the cycle degree is beginning soon, meaning that within a few months after bottoming out here we should see new ATHs.
THIS CHART: On this chart you can see a diagram in blue of the type of wave that I believe this to be, ie. a "double zigzag." Starting from the recent high at 2952 - we can see a sharp down move, which at this timeframe/focus looks like a "three" or zigzag, labeled as Wave W. Then this wave is corrected by wave X, which I believe to be a horizontal triangle. Wave X is then followed by Wave Y (still in progress), which according to the rules of a double zigzag should have the same structure as Wave W, ie. a zigzag, which appears to be happening at this time. It also looks like we are in wave c of Y which, in general, wave c's are devastating in their destruction.
CONCLUSION: In my view, we are very close to capitulation and then subsequent FOMO, similar to the Silk Road take-down in October of 2013. This could be completely wrong though, hence why I'm not publishing THAT chart and i'm publishing THIS chart. Once this chart is done (or nearing completion) and I have more data to work with it will be much easier to determine if we are, in-fact, at the end of this year-long downtrend. Price and time targets are semi-accurate; accurate targets can be made when we are closer to the end of this wave and have more data to work with.
Check the comments for alternate theories and updates. Feel free to ask any questions or post any issues you have with the chart; I'm always open to different perspectives.
LONGER-TERM VIEW: It appears that bitcoin is moving towards the final corrective move of wave 4 of the major cycle degree. The implications of this are grand in that wave 5 of the cycle degree is beginning soon, meaning that within a few months after bottoming out here we should see new ATHs.
THIS CHART: On this chart you can see a diagram in blue of the type of wave that I believe this to be, ie. a "double zigzag." Starting from the recent high at 2952 - we can see a sharp down move, which at this timeframe/focus looks like a "three" or zigzag, labeled as Wave W. Then this wave is corrected by wave X, which I believe to be a horizontal triangle. Wave X is then followed by Wave Y (still in progress), which according to the rules of a double zigzag should have the same structure as Wave W, ie. a zigzag, which appears to be happening at this time. It also looks like we are in wave c of Y which, in general, wave c's are devastating in their destruction.
CONCLUSION: In my view, we are very close to capitulation and then subsequent FOMO, similar to the Silk Road take-down in October of 2013. This could be completely wrong though, hence why I'm not publishing THAT chart and i'm publishing THIS chart. Once this chart is done (or nearing completion) and I have more data to work with it will be much easier to determine if we are, in-fact, at the end of this year-long downtrend. Price and time targets are semi-accurate; accurate targets can be made when we are closer to the end of this wave and have more data to work with.
Check the comments for alternate theories and updates. Feel free to ask any questions or post any issues you have with the chart; I'm always open to different perspectives.
