Since October 2022, we kept reiterating that the primary downtrend had not ended and that we were merely seeing another bear market rally. Furthermore, we were monitoring the market’s sentiment, which changed from “FED’s pivot” hopes (in October 2022) to a “soft landing” narrative (in December 2022/January 2023). However, in line with our expectations, weak...
After a wild week when we bounced cleanly off the 200DMA, backtest of the trendline andf it just went up with 0DTE flows going crazy. I'm thinking we trend up and then go for a liquidity grab lower. How low no one knows but I have my areas for y'all to reference if needed.
I think a bounce bounce to 4100 or more is coming as part of the larger triangle structure. RSI is quite low and the price action is choppy - like they are winding up for a move out of the channel. 4100 or more would certainly convince bulls that "all is well" and the uptrend WILL continue, but I don't think that would be the case. If anything, 4100 is an ideal...
3.02.23 Review : Globex broke 57-44 Support area and was holding under before RTH signaling weakness but that and 32-27 were important areas to stay under and break, RTH Open failed to break 32-27 then we got over 3944-40 and per our morning prep IF we hold 32-27 and managed to get over 44-40 and hold that opens the door for higher resistance target and we...
Copper is struggling at resistance. Often when Copper Struggles, so to does the S&P500. Copper can be ultra sensitive to the Dollar and yields, so watch it carefully as an economic barometer.
It looks like stocks bottomed today, but what is my evidence, and why would I say that? 1. This correction has been very orderly, and VIX has been going down along with stocks, which means something is happening. 2. Stocks have held exceptionally well despite rising interest rates and the DXY. 3. We have continuous liquidity injections by most central banks, and...
3.01.23 Review : Wednesday RTH Opened under 3976-71 which signaled possible move to our lower targets, we did do a full break of our 3957-44 Support area and tagged our target but did not see the full move down towards 3931-27. This is area of cost basis for size traders so we expect to see balancing action and buying around our Support areas, especially on...
I have long opined on how I believe the SPX/ES gets to my initial downside target of 3200 to high 2800 area. This week I will dispense with the long-term warnings, and provide some intermediate context. This market is transitioning from “Buy the Dips” which has worked as a strategy for the better part of 2 decades to “Sell the Rips” . That is not to say...
2.28.23 Review : Tuesday Globex made a push back inside Previous Daily Support area of 4012-3990 before RTH where we found Supply and got our move towards 3976-71 where we found buyers first time around but managed to break it towards end of day. 3.01.23 Prep : Was end of day flush yesterday a move to take in more supply at lower prices and we can hold...
SIMPLE TA ANSWERS YOUR QUESTION OVERALL, GREEN TRENDLINE IS HOLDING THE LINE FOR BULLS AND IS MAJOR TRENDLINE TO HOLD (3950)OR ELSE SHORTS WILL BRING TO 3900 THEN A RETEST OF 3970 FOR BULLS TO MAKE IT THEIR SUPPORT AGAIN OR ELSE 3970 WILL BE STRONG RESISTYANCE IF REJECTION COMES IN. Don't complicate things with what FED is doing. Just keep it simple trading...
2.27.23 Review : Globex pushed us back inside Previous Daily Support at 4012-3990 and we pretty much spent the day inside it with a look above and come back in, look below and end of day break but we still closed inside it. 2.28.23 Prep : Is 4012-3990 our Daily Resistance now or will we be able to stay inside it and push back out? We have Supply over...
Londons first given setup out of the playbook seems to be an EURCHF simple B&R using the pin rejection as our entry criteria going for at least 1:2 RR
Friday 2.24.23 Review: Globex took out Daily Support and our 3976-71 Key Level for continuation before RTH and that gave us a flush down to our next potential support area, the way we opened it seemed like we could see continuation under that next Support but it was our first test and we didn't have enough to break it even though we were under T2 and Previous...
ES WEEKLY Linear Chart - This is a Sell/Short idea... Will be looking for an ideal setup at the Wave 2 if swing trading. With this set-up you can view the early Feb top as a stop. This is a refinement of a previously published idea on my outlook for ES based mainly on my anticipated yield direction of the US10Y. See my idea on TBonds following the link...
Pattern fails if it breaks out above 4000, and bear trend fails above the POC ~4015. Otherwise look down for 3900 1.6 fib and 3825 2.6 fib. Interesting that it made a mini bear megaphone pattern that failed at pivot 1, but the volatility created and even larger pattern. Megaphones have a habit of doing that because of the wild swings. So if it fails perhaps...
The prevailing narrative in these markets is still that you're in a bear market. Some stocks are in a bear market, specifically the tech junk that retail likes to lose money on, but the indexes are not in a bear market and have not been in a bear market. But it's not that the fundamentals behind the world economy are not bearish. Trouble is brewing, and the...
Time for me to give my view on SPX for probably the next month. The EWT in this chart should only be used as a guide. It's very subjective and price action and geometry are what I give more weight, so lets discuss that for now. I'll also focus a bit on the indicators below the chart as well. First, notice the sell signal in January of 2022 which was the top of...
S&P500 / 1D Hello traders, welcome back to another market breakdown. SP500 has been making new highs new lower highs. The price is trading around the 50% pull-back on the major spike higher. The bulls need to prevent the bears from achieving follow-through. The bulls are hopeful that yesterday was just a sell vacuum test of a 50% pullback from the rally....