FOMC Lockhart was the 4th Fed this week to imo be relatively Hawkish with his words, most notably reinforcing with the others brexits near-term stability saying "Doesn't Expect 'Brexit' to Have Near Term Impact on Economy" and " So Far 'Brexit' Reaction Largely Orderly". Most interestingly though was Lockharts view on the FOMC's positioning for future rate...
Bullard is the lone Fed official forecasting just one additional rate increase, and expects modest growth over the next two and a half years. But he reiterated Tuesday he's not expecting the economy to head south. However, did go out of his way to mention a relatively dovish point "We Have Some Ammunition if We Need it During Next Recession". Nonetheless he...
IMO the ECB minutes were the most dovish/ clearly directed statements out of the ECB for several months. Before this, and in the past several speakers comments, sentiment has been towards the hawkish/ stale side, citing "ECB has done enough" as the main rhetoric. The June Minutes however show a renewed positioning of the ECB, where they clearly imply they are...
Short AUDUSD is in my top 3 FX Trades for several reasons: 1. AUD is considered a riskier G10 currency cross, so AUD trades weaker in risk-off markets, or when equities/ SPX trade lower (you can see the high correlation with SPX at the bottom of the graph). - With Brexit concurring last week, global risk has increased, this is especially the case for AUD due to...
Now that the Brexit risk has been realised the mentioned pairs above will share some correlation this week as the market changes between risk-on and risk-off as MANY on the events continually drive the sentiment shifts. My Plan & Expectations USDJPY 1. My conviction for UJ is long 8/10. -UJ traded to lows of 98.9 in the midst of the brexit hype, as the...
The best Idea to play BOJ and FOMC from a risk-averse perspective is to own both in a Long Straddle Strategy Dynamic Straddle: Long USDJPY & Short GBPJPY - TP from volatility & Event likely hoods TP levels = cannot be greedy else you may miss one trades exit point so <25 pips when it goes in your direction for each - total TP = 50pips as 2*25pips Reasoning...
A disappointing open from cable with a bears perspective. Gapping down 100 pips to 1.435 almost immediately puts my sell limit orders (at 146.5) in "unlikely" territory of being hit this week. On friday following the $ EMP report cable managed to rally to 1.458 - i was hopeful it would tick a few more pips upward before the slew of selling started as we move...
Price may test the upper trend line but long term target 1.05 region. Hawkish Fed VS Dovish ECB. Volatility ahead in June
As predicted we came down from ECB news down to 1.108-1.1100, down to the key trend line. EURUSD is now rejecting this trend line + 200 EMA + 50% Fib. Swing traders should look for tomorrow's news FOMC for a break past the 61.% Fibo and a break of the downtrend line shown. NEEDS TO BE CONFIRMED FOR LONGS!!!!
I'M ALREADY IN A SHORT POSITION BUT IF PRICE RETRACES UP TO MY SELL ZONE I WILL LOOK AT PRICE ACTION TO ADD IN ANOTHER POSITION AND TARGET 0.75000. I STRONGLY BELIEVE WE CAN GET TO THERE IN THE SHORT TERM BECAUSE THE LABOUR MARKET IN THE U.S KEEPS COMING OUT GOOD WHICH WILL HAVE INVESTORS/TRADERS SPECULATING A RATE HIKE AS EARLY AS JULY. ON TOP OF THAT AUD...