The Risky BOJ front run trade using CPI inferences - I find it very interesting that the BOJ is releasing ALL of its key economic data (minus GDP) before making the easing decision, especially as we have already had CPI data this month so we will have an 2 CPI releases in one month which ive never seen happen before (CPI from JPY is usually due next week). -...
50 Delta ATM Volatilities: USDJPY - - $Yen has an ATM implied volatility curve of 55.95%mrkt 24.08%1wk 18.31%2wk 14.12%1m - Obviously we are aggressively steeper in the front end, with BOJ tomorrow and JPY MOF Fiscal Package details coming next week providing heightened vol for the 1day and 1wk vols - naturally we then see the curve tail off as the event...
Another argument for the BOJ outperform case - Post BOJ Buy $Yen @MRKT 111tp: 1. We know BOJ and JPY Govt Abe/ Aso have had many meetings post-brexit and as it follows the JPY Govt have announced today that they will deliver a fiscal stimulus package of 28trn - which was to the very right of the curve (10-30 was talked about). - This in mind, imo it is...
Following the additional stimulus of over 20 trillion yen announced early today by Shinzo Abe, I think that investor sentiment in the Japanese economy will be largely boosted, causing increased long positions in this pair, pushing up the price. Why now and why 110 yen? There has been a lot of choppy behaviour based mostly on structural moves recently, and I...
Elliot wave analysis of 2hr usdjpy chart. new impulse following correction.
Usd/jpy inverse head and shoulders, look at that risk reward, great opportunity for a position to ride up to the base of the head and shoulders, take profit along the way if your not a long term trader
USDJPY: 1 . Been watching $yen closely as my top 2 trades this week (along with GU). As expected/ foretasted 107 was the next key risk sentiment resistance level after 104 and after buying the 104 breakout i have confidence/ advise buying the 107 breakout - we have now crossed the 3m moving average at 106 which provides support/ confirms bullish move. 2 Risk...
trend is in transitional phase so it's hard to tell whether it's a continuation or the exhaustion point of first impulse leg
Initial support is seen at 95.95 – 95.75 followed by lower support at 95.0 – 94.75. A bullish follow through above the first support with a breakout above 96.55 which marks the bull flag’s high could signal a longer term rally that could see 97.45 followed by 98.55 levels being marked as the minimum price objective here. The bullish view could, however, turn...
If 106 is overcome, it could be the sign of further strength as the last retracement is somewhat more aggressive than the previous attempts
Trading for this week: 1. My plan for next week focuses on point "3." from the previous post - I am waiting for risk-on or risk-off assets to confirm investor conviction by using USDJPY as a barometer for net risk sentiment. Despite the market uncertainty and high volatility UJ last week traded within a 200pip range for the between 101.3-103.3. Therefore, I...
Expectations vs Reality: 1. Following the referendum decision on Friday, as expected GBP sold off 10%+, the FTSE plummeted in a similar fashion and global risk assets sold off across the board, but FTSE/ Risk recovered a significant amount of those losses into Fridays close and for the rest of the next week.. So what happened to BREXIT? - Such behaviour would...
Looking at prior history (left) on this Weekly chart you can see that we're at an important area here. We can see that the Bat completed, but failed to even break to a full 27.2% retrace. We then continued on down to fully complete the H&S pattern (& 200% ext); yet again, failed to retrace even 27.2% before a low NFP pushed it back down to retest prior lows area....
Dollar Yen has break the rising trend line yesterday but being false break. Now price testing another falling trend line which could possible be the last test for price before a reversal setup or breakout signal formed. If the price could make a breakout, we Long after pullback from breakout, upside target 111.90 If the price being rejected by the falling trend...
Just that, the power of fib extension tool is tremendous... Strong resistance, high probability of reversal, the daily chart already shows bear candle ... lets follow ...
Watch the lines because it is important to know which line rejected it and which line saved it. The price of the asset merely bounces between lines. USDJPY might have a bounce, given that it was recently saved by that black line, but get ready to go short again as soon as it starts to break down at that black line.
USDJPY has formed and been trading within this descending channel over the last couple of weeks. After a failed retest of the 114.00 levels, it looks as if USDJPY is on it's way down. Prepare for a retest of the lows at 110.667, as well as a potential bearish break out. Market expected to head toward 110.00, 105.00, and eventually 101.00