As stated on the title this happens to be the most creative I've gotten with a chart, yet it covers one single but very important aspect which is Market Psychology. Market Psychology is key to understanding financial markets and we can see it unfold with this chart analysis. We can clearly see all the stages labeled out during the uptrend and what is now happening...
The Govenor of the RBNZ is speaking in 16 hours time - there could be significant up/ downside volatility in Kiwi - as we have seen after the past 3wks where the RBNZ have gone through the full hawk-dove cycle in their inferences/ rhetoric.
We had RBNZ Spencer's comments on house inflation back on the 7th of July which wrote off an RBNZ OCR cut - sending kiwi$ to...
Following today's Service/ Manufacturing PMI miss (worst contraction in 88 months - since 2009) the Sterling market has come under significant pressure as BOE rate cut expectations increase with OIS rates markets pricing a 94% chance of a 4th Aug cut vs 85% before the PMI's were released.
Further, the PMI misses has attracted attention from UK Politicians e.g....
GOLDMAN SACHS EXPECT 3 RBNZ RATE CUTS OF 25BP APIECE IN AUG, NOV AND MAR.
In a scheduled "Economic Update" published on Thursday, the RBNZ signalled a significant strengthening in its easing bias, and dovish shift across its views on domestic inflation and domestic/global growth. At the heart of many of these changes is renewed concern about the elevated NZD. In...
I posted earlier with my 107 USDJPY breakout trade (see attached post) - one of the reasons I said to long USDJPY on the 107 break-out was due to JPY Govt stimulus speculation.
In the last few hours we have seen fresh speculation of the JPY stimulus, with JPY20trn now being discussed/ proposed to be on the table - this renewed rhetoric is nothing but positive for...
Reuters Analyst Expectations:
FOMC
1. IMPROVING DATA POINT TO SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE -
- The Fed is very unlikely to spring any surprises at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday 27th July, but a September rate hike is a distinct possibility. The statement next week should acknowledge the apparent pick-up in second-quarter GDP growth,...
Short NZDUSD based on low CPI/ inflation = an RBNZ OCR cut is 90% likely
- 105 mins after market open at 23:45GMT NZD releases their June CPI print.
- In all RBNZ mandates they reiterate how they consider CPI to be their "main/ sole" target or dictator of the monetary policy they set (check any of their minutes etc).
- Their target is 2%, plus recently they...
