AM 2:30GMT Ausssie Inflation prints are released these are key for determining their August Policy Decision 1. IMO a 1.0%yoy CPI print shows a further 0.3% contraction in their yearly CPI, this should be sufficient to push the RBA to cutting their OCR by 25bps, similarly a 0.3%qoq CPI will be needed in conjunction to show that inflation is growing at a slow...
When looking at the daily for AUDUSD, I believe there's a clear uptrend visible, indicated by the orange trend line. H4 also shows lower lows and higher highs . Moreover, the lower level of the support area (indicated by the green arrows) has been tested multiple times and seems to be holding . These are indicators that the pair could trend higher. We've seen...
Short NZDUSD based on low CPI/ inflation = an RBNZ OCR cut is 90% likely - 105 mins after market open at 23:45GMT NZD releases their June CPI print. - In all RBNZ mandates they reiterate how they consider CPI to be their "main/ sole" target or dictator of the monetary policy they set (check any of their minutes etc). - Their target is 2%, plus recently they...
DETAILS ON CHART, IF NOT TRIGGERED WITHIN 10-30 SEC - CANCELL A TRADE AS THE CONTINUATION OF THE EU CORRECTION IS POSSIBLE, PLACING A LONG ORDER ALSO
So the disappointing Core Consumer Price Index (MoM) print earlier has sent the USDCAD hurtling towards the psychological price of $1.40 which hasn’t been broken since August 2003! In addition to this, it’s no secret that the tumbling oil price has been a contributory factor to CAD weakness. Due to the strength of the resistance, I would expect a pull back to...
The Australian dollar is coming off a sizable gain against the greenback, following an employment jump of 58,600. This pushed the unemployment rate down to 5.9 percent from 6.2 percent in September. Analysts are expecting this to hinder further rate cuts near-term, while economist Stephen Koukoulas believes the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may indeed raise...
The GBP/USD pair has some important levels of support/resistance beneath them: 1.5350, 1.5175, and 1.4975. They are significant because the retracement of the fall from 7/2014 may be over, and the question is can the 6/2015 high hold and will price begin to descend to the 04/2015 lows. This downward sloping pitchfork and the story of a price it tells is...
Today should be a very important day for the EURUSD as we have both CPI and FOMC Meeting minutes coming out for the USD at 8:30am & 2:00pm (NY) respectively. Like many pairs as of late the Euro is currently at a spot right between structure levels where I have neither buying or selling interest. Hopefully today’s releases will push price action to either support...
I've explained this trade in detail during my latest Weekend Review video (link below), so i'll try to be brief. Like everyone else, I want to buy Dollars & Sell Euros based off of the fundamentals. With that being said it's important that we don't try and jump on the bandwagon because that's how a lot of rookie traders get burnt. Rather, we should stick to what...
To be transparent and clear I am short the market, fully invested. This is my further attempt to be objective. Bears will justify many reasons why QE4 is not possible. At the very least it's not probable, but in all honesty, after reading Bernanke's SA on reasons for using QE in a deflationary cycle, there is no reason the US will not go the way of Japan, by...
GBP has been held hostage to Mark Carney's flip flops over last few months. One day the rates are going to rise Q4 2014, next they won't be till mid 2015. Today UK releases CPI data that will be closely watched. A less than expected CPI number could break the back and send the pound 300 pips down to 1.6350 Currently, the pound has retraced to 61.8% level which...
1H Chart: With upcoming data release from BoJ (CPI , and UER ) I have a strong indication that the yen pairs will be reaching a support around $101.2 - $101.5
Following up from the previous analysis, the downside objective was achieved at 1.67418. In the run up to the CPI release, it is likely for GBPUSD to go back to test the previous level of 1.6925. While the bias is to the downside, for now, an upside move could be likely. Not recommended to take a long position now, or if taken make sure the risks are minimal with...
Quarterly CPI came out soft and Aussie declined across the board + China Flash PMI despite an increase from 48 to 48.3 was still seen as weak. In line with this chart, next support is likely to come in around 0.912 - 0.92 levels. 6 days for NFP data before the next big move. Also on the same day (02/05) Aussie PPI will be released as well. Note that on 01/05 we...