U.S. Continuous Jobless Claims
Rep: 1,906k 🚨Higher than Expected 🚨
Exp: 1,889K
Prev: 1,898k (revised down from 1,905k)
Continuous claims came at 1,906k which is 8,000 higher than last weeks revised 1,898k.
The Trend
Since Sept 2022 continuing claims have increased from 1.302m to 1.906m (604k+).
This is significantly concerning trend & suggests that an...
MACRO MONDAY 11
Continued Jobless Claims ECONOMICS:USCJC
Continued Jobless Claims are the continued unemployment benefits claimed by workers who made their first “Initial claim” and remained unemployed in the weeks that followed.
In other words, Initial Jobless Claims account for only the people that claimed their first week of unemployment benefit whilst...
Really tricky market to make sense of right now because of how last weeks data (stronger job market - confirmed by NFP) was disregarded. This could mean:
1. Either they were beginning to lay a trap (current moves will reverse)
2. The market genuinely doesn't care because it expects claims to eventually pick up with a vengeance
Here's what I think:
CPI has...
📌 The affinity between 'resistance' and 'overextension'
Light and summery flows continue with GBP in purely technical moves.
Very little to update on the fundamental here; a weak macro and political picture persists as activity remains incredibly low in the absence of confidence. There’s a lot of support stacked on the 0.90 🔑 pivot in EURGBP and 1.252x in...
📍 NZDUSD : NFP Positional Play
This is an example of an erroneous defence. In similar style to that of the GBPUSD position, the highs 0.652x can be defended, since it unlocks an impulsive position which is somewhat cramped via RBNZ adding more free money to the pot.
Buyers attempt at breaching the highs should be opposed, we have risk in play via Covid and...
A paradigm shift followed the "It's time" chart more rigidly than even I expected. Apologetically we can give the official ✅ for those following the example of dogmatism from @ridethepig and can see clearly how far we have come:
"It's Time"
📌 It can be said that the opening knee-jerk reaction from "The Great Lockdown" is over and we can begin to enjoy a...
The maximium FRED:ICSA since 1967 has not been more than 1m weekly (not even during 2008 or 2001), now in 2020 the US is at 6m per week (see FRED data here: fred.stlouisfed.org).
Jobless claims continue to trend down within relevant descending range.
Currently reached a cyclical low, last seen in 2000 and 2006.
Thus the short term unemployment indicator shows that on one hand, situation is improving, but on the other hand it will be difficult to trade lower - and a cyclical upturn in Jobless Claims could be in the cards.
