TVC:US20Y double-tops, while NASDAQ:TLT creates a double-bottom.. Question to ask tho - has US20Y actually double-topped, or is this just retracement for a bigger push beyond ATHs? Looking for further signs of confirmation that long-ended yields have indeed peaked...then I'll feel more confident in popping the champagne. Boost/Follow appreciated, cheers...
TVC:GOLD seizing on relativeness weakness from Bond Yields across the long-ended spectrum. While Bullish momentum is encouraging, a definitive close above ~1913 (61.8% Fib) will be transformational. Resurgence in Bonds will most likely pressure Gold back into downward trend towards Gap Fill/78.6% Fib, or further capitulation towards $1800 territory. Traders...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is approaching the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) that has been supporting the price action since May 16. The long-term trend since the October 21 2022 market top has been bearish, guided downwards by a Lower Lows trend-line but since February it has transitioned into a Rectangle. The recent July 07 High was a direct hit at...
The US10Y turned neutral on the 1D timeframe today (RSI = 51.795, MACD = 0.074, ADX = 33.857) after it got rejected on R1 two days ago. It is likely to see a sharp fall as on the March 2nd rejection, and in that case S1 and S2 won't pose any bullish pressure to the downtrend, nor should the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200, which in the past 12 months haven't had any such...
US10Y - 10 YEAR BOND WEEKLY TENDENCY ANALYSIS THE 10 Year Bond Started Buying from Weekly Demand (green) Then reached Monthly Supply that generated a new/fresh weekly Supply to start reversing the price Destiny: Weekly demand (green) Stages/Weekly tendency - Stan Weistein - STAGE I: Price consolidate Between SMA 30 @ Weekly TF - STAGE II: ...
Check out the AI patterns and my trend lines and see what you think... we've definitely broken the long-term down trend which everyone said would collapse.. pretty much everything, lol.
The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) hit the downside target on our previous signal (see idea below) and is currently rising again: Being above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), we see the potential of a diverging Channel Down to emerge and establish itself (dotted lines). The completion of a 1D Death Cross, the...
The US10Y is trading inside a Channel Down ever since its market peak on October 21st. The 1D technicals are neutral (RSI = 54.601, MACD = 0.300, ADX = 17.030) giving a mixed tone to the price action but based on the December-January Lows we can see the the Channel Down has one last dip to make before it bottoms and rebounds on the medium term. We will wait for...
Highest yield on a 30-year bond the government sold at auction, and the bid-to-cover ratio of the auction; Usual Effect No consistent effect - there are both risk and growth implications; Frequency Conducted monthly; Next Release May 11, 2023 Previous Release March 9, 2023 3.88|2.4 FF Notes Auction results are reported in an 'X.XX|X.X'...
Reference chart for my research purposes. US Bond Yields Tracked Over Time
In light of the precarious global economy and numerous contributing factors, such as deglobalization, the inflationary impact of the war in Ukraine, an aging population, and an overwhelming amount of debt, the Federal Reserve's role and efficacy in the current economic climate have come into question. Drawing on Jeff Snider's work, it is increasingly evident that...
The US02Y has been trading on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the past 4 weeks, closing above it on all occasions. This is a key time for (primarily) the stock market as the last time the US02Y broke and closed below its 1W MA50 (week of December 31 2018), a massive rally on stocks (which on this chart are portrayed by the S&P500 and the black trend-line) was...
Here we can see Japan is slurping up bonds to hold down oil prices. (vs. USD: Red) (vs. SAR Green) Simultaneously the us05y (orange) is compressing below the us30y (yellow), uninverting the yield curve and firing off our famous recession signals. But people wonder why the MOVE index is so wildly off the charts..
The US10Y is trading inside a Channel Down on the 1D timeframe with the 1D technicals neutral (RSI = 46.172, MACD = -0.046, ADX = 31.478). With the 1D RSI coming off an accumulation that we've seen on the December and January bottoms, we expect the price to rise and approach at least the 0.618 Fibonacci. Our TP = 3.750. ## If you like our free content follow...
The S&P500 recently has been negatively correlated with bond yields. The while line is the US10Y. This has been inside a Channel Down and is near its bottom. Based on their negative correlation that will push the S&P500 lower. The time that both the S&P500 and the US10Y rose simultaneously was after August 1st and we can seriously argue that there are...
Good afternoon and good evening dear traders! At the morning I shared a post where I said to sell ZB1!, it's too late but you still have made some profits if you got in early. For my clients and I it was a good day in ZB1! and NATURAL GAS, we could make some good profits on the 4% drop of the NATURAL GAS and on the 1% of the ZB1!, I didn't share the NATURAL GAS...
It is only 11 days ago when we called for an immediate drop on the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) as it was at the top of both its long-term Channel Down as well as the top of the Diverging Channel Up: The Channel Up now broke to the downside as the US10Y not only hit our 3.550% Target but closed even below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), with the...
The U.S. Government Bonds 2 YR Yield (US02Y) is testing its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since May 31 2021. The 1W RSI is on the very same Lower Highs trend-line rejection that it was during the December 17 2018 1W MA50 test! Needless to say this shows that the price is on a critical point as when it broke in Dec 2018, a downtrend followed that...