GBP/JPY bulls remain in charge on central bank divergence, but the FOMC minutes could sway things one way or the other as explained in this video.
The British pound has posted considerable gains on Wednesday. In the North session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2754, up 0.39%. The UK released the July inflation report today and the readings were a mixed bag. Headline CPI dropped to 6.8% y/y, a sharp drop from the 7.9% gain in June and matching the consensus estimate. The decline was certainly welcome news but the...
The British pound has edged higher on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2697, up 0.08%. Investors were treated to a mixed UK employment report today. The labour market, which has been surprisingly resilient in the face of the Bank of England's tightening, is showing unmistakable signs of cooling. Employment fell by 66,000 in the three...
Of the three central banks that I primarily trade, the Bank of England (BOE) has the biggest puzzle. Today's data was the worst possible for Governor Bailey and his team. Specifically, employment fell by 66,000 and the unemployment rate ticked higher by 0.2% for the second month in a row to 4.2% (the Federal Reserve would be delighted with this turn of...
The British pound is quiet at the start of the week. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2701, up 0.05%. The UK releases key employment numbers on Tuesday and the data is expected to show that the UK labour market remains tight. The economy is expected to have created 50,000 jobs in the three months to June. That number is down from 125,000...
In my opinion GBP is building up for a big fall this year, and it has to start with a lower high. Oil prices are rising, and as much as the FED don't want this, it's happening, and this should be good for CAD. I can see a rising wedge pattern, we can see spinning tops forming and it looks like we're running out of steam, I believe we'll initially fall back to...
I'm expecting full on GBP weakness over the coming weeks, regardless of what happens with the dollar. We've broken below the months of ascending trendline and so far failed to break back above, we have a beautiful bearish engulfing candle on the 4hr close from Friday. I get this pair wrong a lot (because I live in the UK and can see a car crash happening in slow...
In my recent ideas I’ve noted JPY strength resuming and this is evident in the performance last week, and we can see this when looking at the JPYWCU chart which is like DXY for the Yen. We can see what could be a higher low forming and a fourth retest of the resistance around 0.005350 which could break. We’ve seen out-performance of the Yen against many...
The British pound is slightly lower on Thursday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2685, down 0.19%. The pound has been struggling and is down 1.26% this week. The Bank of England meets later today and policy makers have a tough decision on their hands. Will they raise rates by 25 basis points or be more aggressive and deliver a 50-bp hike? The BoE...
The British pound has edged lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3038, down 0.27%. The UK is lagging behind other major economies in the fight to curb inflation. Will Wednesday's inflation report bring some good news? In May, CPI remained stuck at 8.7% y/y but is expected to ease to 8.2% in June. The core rate is expected to...
The British pound has drifted lower on Monday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2827 in the European session, down 0.09%. The UK labour market remains resilient despite a cooling economy and high interest rates. Tuesday's June jobs report is expected to show strong numbers. The economy is expected to produce 158,000 jobs in June, after a banner reading of 250,000 in May....
Assuming we are early into the long trip downward would put us somewhere in the early stages of Cycle wave C down, Primary wave 1 down, Intermediate wave 2 up. This would have made Intermediate wave 1 down 5 trading days long with a 120.39 point drop. Based on waves ending in C12, Intermediate wave 2 will last 1 day. There are zero other possible lengths. The...
U.S. Oil still stuck in consolidation, making big ranging moves. Monday was a federal holiday, Juneteenth. New York -Traded Texas intermediate, or WTI did not make much movement upon opening. Sunday or Monday, closing with a bearish candle at $90.87. Tuesday dropped 1% or 100 pips to 69.82 area, then regaining by the end of the day closing at 71.63 Wednesday Fed...
"The Bank of England has hiked interest rates to 5 per cent in a further blow to homeowners struggling with spiralling mortgage costs. The rise, up from 4.5 per cent, is the sharpest increase since February – surprising economists who had been expecting a smaller increase of 0.25 percentage points – and sends interest rates to their highest level in 15...
These are just my ideas, what I’m expecting, and why, with this week’s the big fundamentals. Overview Big market-moving news this week with Wednesday’s UK CPI, Thursday’s BoE Interest Rate Decision and Forecast, there is also FED Powell’s testimony in between the UK events on Wednesday. Several things could play out with the UK news, which is what my scenarios...
The UK continues to struggle with high inflation, as demonstrated once again this morning when headline inflation exceeded expectations at 8.7%, surpassing the projected 8.4%. Core inflation also outperformed, registering a 7.1% figure compared to the expected 6.8%. This divergence emphasizes the contrast between the UK and its counterparts in the US and Europe....
The British pound has edged lower on Wednesday. GBP is trading at 1.2724 in Europe, down 0.3%. GBP/USD spiked after today's inflation release but in currently in negative territory. The UK released the May inflation report today, and the results were a major disappointment, to put it mildly. With inflation falling for two straight months, there were hopes that...
The British pound is lower on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2739, down 0.41%. The UK releases the May inflation report on Wednesday and BoE policy makers will be hoping that inflation continues to trend lower. Inflation dropped in April to 8.7%, decelerating for a second straight month. The consensus stands at 8.4%, and the good news...