The 10-YR is seeing demand as every data point in 2015 has come under expectations, while the slump in US economic data began months ago. Key bond gurus, such as Gundlach and Gross, look at the US 10-Y to reach a 1-handle. Safe-haven demand will be a major trend in 2015 as volatility increases, which will drive more traders into treasuries. Initially, look for...
The US dollar weakens almost one percent on growing uncertainty following worldwide equity sell-offs. The weaker dollar is allowing crude to rebound from below $63 per barrel, but spreads on energy debt have ballooned to 880 bps, an all-time new high as traders deem the high-yielding debt extremely risky. The VIX spikes over 16, creating the worst two-day span in...
Macro: The Short term spike in yields triggered a large selloff in REITS. As mentioned in the 10 Year yield post, The yields are likely to rebound until at least end of year which could put downward pressure on REITS. Technicals: USDH is underperforming the S&P which is setting up for a possible short across the board over the next weeks. The bearish divergence...
Technicals: The 10 year T Note is finding support along the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2.38. This level also coincides with the 20 MA on the Monthly chart which is on an uptrend. The general uptrend movement from 2013 to now suggest that the recent selloff could be a consolidation ahead of a larger break to the upside. Macro: The Fed has been hinting towards...
Price Action post NFP suggest the USD/JPY still has some topside catch up to play with the US 10 yr Treasury Yield and the gaining USD Dollar Index. With Stocks still strong and carry trade back on the cards, the USD/JPY should do well from AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY buying. EUR/USD selling is still a real possibility with the USD strength from this also supporting. A...