Just passing this cool info written by a guy called Ben Carlson. - Ben discusses the differences between probability and certainty: "There are two arguments I see on a regular basis that show up as a result of data overload: …because that’s never happened before. …because that’s what’s always happened before. -The problem with this line of thinking is that...
Hello everyone! In this post we will present and explain our trading system. Our trading system condensates everything we have learned from hard work, study and even harder lessons received in these years of trading. It is constantly evolving and updating, we are always ready to question some aspects of our system and research tools and strategies that can improve...
A DEEP CORRECTION = a correction more than 25-30% within the consolidation period. Sometimes a stock might correct more especially in a volatile bear market. Deeper correction are more risky as they are more failure prone - use these ideas to put probabilities on your side. The checklist 1. You want as much time away from that correction as possible (at least 1...
A few key concepts when using Market Profile in your trading: 1) Point of Control (POC) acts as price magnets, as they represent the price level where most time was spent during a trading day. Price tends to gravitate towards them. 2) Naked (Not visited) POC acts as stronger magnets than visited POCs. 3) When price enters / breaks into a Value Area, which...
United States Inflation Rate, Year-over-Year, 1914-2022 chart ---------------------------------------------------------------- Why do I think inflation will go down to 0%? Inflation is currently at the main trendline (established in 1920). This is a very strong resistance, and as a general rule, do not short a support or long a resistance. In other words, you...
Island Reversal are powerful reversal signals so as a swing trader I'm always searching these out and/or watching them form. The most powerful Island Reversals generally occur around some sort of news event (or sometimes prior to a news event if Wall Street is in the "know") and typically leads to fairly violent initial move to the upside or downside. What is...
A special today... I just saw this and thought it was a good opportunity to show how I use Fibonacci and geometric symmetry to help do some projections. Here are the steps for the SPY hourly charts currently... 1. Draw a Fibo retracement from the last high (22/7) to the last low (22/7) 2. Note that the rebound (currently) only got to the 0.5 (50%) Fibo...
Use this as tailwinds for your trading and investments to spot the capital inflows when the time comes. I would say we are likely in the inflationary bust stage (1) coming out of the disinflationary boom stage (4) for the last decade and beyond. I would dare say the Inflationary bust stage is next (2) as the central banks try to kill inflation by raising rates...
How can we tell whether a downturn is just a normal part of a solid bull market, or the beginning of a major downdraft? We need to have a way to identify when long-term trends are changing. One way to guard against being caught on the opposite side of a trend is to apply technical indicators that can isolate major trend shifts and reduce psychological biases....
The SPX reversal to $4,200 provides an opportunity to learn from the pros and get back to the basics of trading. This means understanding the numbers and being able to buy things wholesale and sell them at a retail price. With this knowledge, you can be a successful trader.
Hi friends, you've probably noticed that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies start to rise or fall after consolidation. In this idea I will explain why consolidations happen, how to use this in cryptocurrency market analysis and where the next ATH for Bitcoin will be. 📊What is a consolidation? Consolidation is the small price range. Unlike a bullish or bearish trend,...
Multi timeframe analysis of the S&P500 Index using the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo with original 9,26,52,26 settings, i have also added Volume Profiles (VPVR) and (VPFR) onto the charts. 1 DAY CHART: The Ichimoku Cloud Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen) is indicating that the Mid-Point of the Short-term momentum is upwards at the moment. This will possibly change to...
TVC:US10Y TVC:NYA A reminder that falling bond yields are synonymous with higher bond prices. In other words, a downtrend in yield equates to a bull market in bonds. In January, bonds were still in a technical bull market as defined by the broad declining channel that had contained the 40 year bull market. In March the break of that downtrend turned the macro...
This is a little, pseudo-study I did on SPY (SPX) analysing bearish chart patterns and whether or not there was a statistically significant relationship between bearish chart patterns and sell-offs and if so, to what degree? Most of the literature says that chart patterns and technical analysis are not useful and that chart patterns are the circumstances of...
Recently, a lot of people have been talking about the possibility of a multi-year recession. I don't think that is a clear depiction of the current situation, but I am aware that the idea stems from a lack of understanding of bear market structures, and influence of market sentiment. So in this post, I'll be going over Ken Fishers' rules and conditions that must...
I am posting a chart for educational purpose using S&p 500 index with heikinAshi candle and elliott waves trading is an art of buying at low and selling at high, looks easy to do? if so why more people loosing and big players minting money? trading is a money making process when the crowd has extreme interest in one direction(buy /sell). when everyone in the...
Hello everybody! This is a follow up on my 6-part traditional and crypto market analysis, yet everyone that reads this one will benefit greatly, regardless of whether they've read any of the previous analyses or not. Over the last week I provided some updates on each part, however it currently makes more sense for me to make a brand-new holistic analysis, rather...
Here I put up a series of deflactors on the Nasdaq 100 Total Return... I like to use Total Return Indexes becuase they acurately reflect the actual growth of the invested money, rather than simple price indexes... I picked the Nasdaq because as you may have noticed from previous posts the Nasdaq is the absolute winner in terms of performance in the last 15...