I used the U.S PCE YoY as the base, I then overlaid the M1 YoY and Real GDP YoY. I used the beginning of this years as a reference point as that is roughly when the fed began increasing interest rates.
As the price level declines demonstrated by a decline in the money supply and PCE YoY declining
Real GDP YoY is seen increasing
To my understanding this...
In this article, I show you my way of working in Forex, starting with the choice of the currency pair, passing through all aspects of the operation (position size, maximum loss, etc.), until the analysis of the currency pair and the strategy to be adopted (entry-level, stop-loss and target).
Looking at the table of currency pairs I follow, the one that caught my...
Even as Fed balance sheet keeps climbing up and U.S takes on more national debt in the current low-interest rate environment, I am not eager to jump to the premature conclusion and entertain the idea of hyperinflation.
I'm not saying that it is improbable, I am just saying that it is an unlikely and low-probability event. Yes, it is a fat tail risk that...
One of the main economic indicators for currency valuation is the real interest rate differential between the two countries / currencies.
The large flows of fixed income always go to where there is the highest real yield, interest rate discounted from inflation. The carry trade.
It is possible to see in the USDCAD example on the graph the great correlation...
THE PRICE OF OIL IS THE MOST DIFFICULT PRICE TO MANIPULATE FOR CENTRAL BANKS!
HOWEVER, THROUGH VAST AMOUNTS OF FIAT CURRENCY CREATION, THE PRICE OF OIL INCREASINGLY REFLECTS THE DEBASEMENT OF THE U.S. DOLLAR, NOT REAL DEMAND!
TO OBSERVE THE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE INFLATED U$D PRICE OF OIL AND REAL DEMAND FOR OIL, COMPARE THE PRICE OF OIL TO THE PRICE OF GOLD!
Using an updated chart of earlier posted opportunity around AUDUSD (AU) I like to highlight and illustrate the exceptional speculation that has been going on since mid April onwards. The first and many incidence of the same speculation has often seen coming in very sudden which indicates a single source instead of graduate forming of buying/selling pressure you...
I personally follow 4 central banks in detail: FED (USD), ECB (EUR), BoJ (JPY) and BoE (GBP). Knowing the monetary policies of these banks and how they differ, helps me in trading the following 6 major pairs: EU, GU, UJ, EJ, EG and GJ. I also follow three other central banks, be it more at a distance and with less detail: SNB, RBA and BoC. The banks to follow...
