blacksheepforex

blacksheepforex

An alternative way of assessing currency flow is the ratio between the ETFs of each currency. For example, the EZU that gives exposure to a developed market countries using the Euro currency, divided by IVV that gives exposure to large, established U.S. companies. The direction of this ratio shows us whether companies in one country (or region) are growing faster...

blacksheepforex

One of the main economic indicators for currency valuation is the real interest rate differential between the two countries / currencies. The large flows of fixed income always go to where there is the highest real yield, interest rate discounted from inflation. The carry trade. It is possible to see in the USDCAD example on the graph the great correlation...

blacksheepforex

Although it seems irrational, the market sentiment is that, with the Fed's large injection of liquidity, several vaccines in the third test phase and the uncertainty of the American elections approaching, the dollar no longer seems like a safe haven. Although the fundamentals point to a faster recovery in the United States and due to the injection of money by the...

blacksheepforex

Despite the uncertainty in the markets (Gold and VIX) and the fundamentals (productivity and consumption) indicate a faster recovery in the United States, which theoretically should appreciate the USD, in my opinion the market remains irrational. But following Keynes' advice "markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent", I prefer not to take a...

blacksheepforex

1- On 03/03 the real interest rate differential was 0.16 in favor of the UK and the big speculators were bought in 29k contracts(CoT). The value of gbpusd? Approximately 1.28 On 06/10 the real interest rate differential was 0.70, now in favor of the USA and the big speculators were sold at 36k(CoT). The value of gbpusd? Approximately 1.28 2- If we look at the...