During the 1990s and again in the 2010s, equity and bond investors celebrated a goldilocks economy. GDP and employment growth were solid and core inflation remained comfortably around 2% per year despite increasingly tight labor markets. That scenario was occasionally interrupted, notably by the tech wreck recession in 2001, the 2008 global financial crisis, and...
We entered 2023 with a pessimistic consensus outlook for U.S. economic performance and for how rapidly inflation might recede. As it happened, there was no recession, and personal consumption posted sustained strength. Inflation, except shelter, declined dramatically from its 2022 peak.
The big economic driver in 2023 was job growth. Jobs had recovered all their...
This video tutorial discussion:
• What is QE and QT?
• Each impact to the stock market
• The latest QT, how will the stock market into 2024?
Dow Jones Futures & Its Minimum Fluctuation
E-mini Dow Jones Futures
1.0 index point = $5.00
Code: YM
Micro E-mini Dow Jones Futures
1.0 index point = $0.50
Code: MYM
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is...
Has anybody ever told you to be careful what you wish for because you might get it? Well, the Bank of Japan appears to be in one of those situations today.
Japan spent three decades oscillating into and out of deflation. As such, when inflation started to rise in 2022, the BOJ was initially thrilled. Finally deflation was coming to an end, and inflation was...
Despite the fastest rise in interest rates since 1981, and an inverted yield curve where short-term rates are much higher than long-term bond yields, the United States has not (at least yet) experienced the recession forecast by the vast majority of market pundits and economists. Why not?
The relatively few contrarians that did not forecast a recession, including...
European currencies have been rebounding strongly versus the U.S. dollar since hitting bottom in late September 2022 during the Gilt crisis when yields on U.K. government bonds surged. The rally in European currencies accelerated in July 2023 following the release of the U.S. inflation statistics (Figure 1).
Figure 1: EUR and GBP have rebounded strongly in...
At a glance:
Higher tech stocks tend to boost ETHBTC, while a higher USD tends to depress it
Bitcoin supply is perfectly inelastic, which contributes to its high volatility
Together, ether and bitcoin account for over 60% of the total value of the world’s cryptocurrencies, but the exchange rate between the two has varied widely over time.
So, what drives...
How to identify the specific points for trendline to determine the direction of the market? In this example, I am using the Nasdaq index.
You can use this trendline technique to any markets because its principles in this tutorial are applicable throughout whether to an individual stock, indices or even commodities.
I am going to introduce the primary and...
When Bitcoin was trading at around 60,000 level in late 2021 and before that year, whenever friends, acquaintance and participants asked my opinion about investing into cryptocurrency, immediately I knew they may not know much about cryptocurrency.
To clarify, I am not an expert in cryptocurrency, but I know its intrinsic value could not be calculated then and...
It was the best of trades, it was the worst of trades. Look, I had to get that one in.
This update is a quick answer to an email received on CME micro bitcoin futures. To trade or not to trade?
Answer: there are pros and cons here.
Some points:
Micros are very algo driven with the May contract currently looking heavy from just one participant stacking...
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In this post, I will be explaining the concept of the Risk/Reward Ratio, also known as the RRR, and the significance of this idea when it comes to trading.
I will also be explaining how this can be applied to...
