Hey guys,
BTC is in trouble! My previous target of 8700 (8678) was pretty much spot on! I was calling for the fall, I called for danger and that's what we got. If you haven’t seen my previous ideas, I suggest you review them… press play and you’ll see what happened after they were published.
A little rant…. Bitcoin and cryptos are a highly leveraged, highly speculative, highly unregulated and even highly manipulated market. The price action is wild and explosive, unlike anything we’ve seen in regular equity markets. I’m becoming more and more convinced that Elliot wave and Fibonacci analysis are the tools necessary for the best technical analysis. Of course to be used with other tools to form a complete toolbox. A lot of the top technical analysts focus on chart patterns….. head and shoulders, cup and handles, inverted/non-inverted, bull flag/pennants, bear flag pennants, etc. Im not saying that patterns are not valuable, but there are patterns all over the freekin chart these days. Some of them complete, but I’m seeing a lot of patterns that don't. I don’t know about you, but I don’t want to be investing on a coin flip. I’m not saying I’m a master analyst… I’m still learning. But when you get your Elliot wave count correct, the results are downright precise! And the current idea’s I’ve been posting have been on point, so lets keep rolling with it. If you are new to Elliot wave analysis, do a quick google/wiki search to get a basic sense of the theory, it will only take 5 minutes for an overview.
First I’ll give you guys the big picture in this post, then I’ll publish a second idea zooming in for more detail. Here’s some tips on using the chart above to zoom in and navigate:
- hover your mouse near bottom center of the chart. You'll see five buttons: < + refresh - >
- Click refresh and the plus to zoom in
- To change the scale, click the right hand scale (8500,8600,8700,etc) and drag up or down.
- Using these tips, you should be able to zoom in to see the subwaves, that look like a garbled mess on the zoomed out view.
To summarize what we see in the chart:
- We are in a big, bearish impulse wave down from the top of 9200 on Mar 21.
- The fall below 8300 that happened this morning confirms it… any hope that the wave up from 8200 to 9000 (Mar 23-24) was a going to continue a new bull run from the 7300 bottom has been lost.
- We are now in the explosive wave 3 of the downward impulse wave. The third wave of a 5 wave impulse is always the largest move of the 5.
- Check out my next post for a zoom in on the details of this subwave 3 down… i’m not sure if you’ll be able to zoom in on this chart properly (see the tips above).
- I don’t like to predict much more than the current wave so take anything beyond this wave 3 down with a grain of salt. But a retest of the 7300 is becoming a high probability.
Note that I’m not a bear…. I’m willing to trade both directions. If the chart tells me its going down, I’m not going to stick blindly to bullish hopes and lose money. That being said, I am a long term bull… I want to see crypto succeed, and I know after we finally find the bottom of this bear trend, we will rise like a phoenix, and hit awesome new highs by the end of this year. So hopefully we hit 7300 as a double bottom and begin a bull run. If we break 7300, then break the previous low of 6000ish (5800), then at minimum we are in an extended bear market that could last into the summer, at worst until the end of the year or beyond.
Thanks, please follow, like and share!
The more feedback and followers I get, the more time and energy I’ll put into these posts!
LLCoolRS
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, and is given for educational purposes only. I make the charts, you make your own trades. Never blindly follow internet advice for your financial decisions... any analyst can and will be wrong.
BTC is in trouble! My previous target of 8700 (8678) was pretty much spot on! I was calling for the fall, I called for danger and that's what we got. If you haven’t seen my previous ideas, I suggest you review them… press play and you’ll see what happened after they were published.
A little rant…. Bitcoin and cryptos are a highly leveraged, highly speculative, highly unregulated and even highly manipulated market. The price action is wild and explosive, unlike anything we’ve seen in regular equity markets. I’m becoming more and more convinced that Elliot wave and Fibonacci analysis are the tools necessary for the best technical analysis. Of course to be used with other tools to form a complete toolbox. A lot of the top technical analysts focus on chart patterns….. head and shoulders, cup and handles, inverted/non-inverted, bull flag/pennants, bear flag pennants, etc. Im not saying that patterns are not valuable, but there are patterns all over the freekin chart these days. Some of them complete, but I’m seeing a lot of patterns that don't. I don’t know about you, but I don’t want to be investing on a coin flip. I’m not saying I’m a master analyst… I’m still learning. But when you get your Elliot wave count correct, the results are downright precise! And the current idea’s I’ve been posting have been on point, so lets keep rolling with it. If you are new to Elliot wave analysis, do a quick google/wiki search to get a basic sense of the theory, it will only take 5 minutes for an overview.
First I’ll give you guys the big picture in this post, then I’ll publish a second idea zooming in for more detail. Here’s some tips on using the chart above to zoom in and navigate:
- hover your mouse near bottom center of the chart. You'll see five buttons: < + refresh - >
- Click refresh and the plus to zoom in
- To change the scale, click the right hand scale (8500,8600,8700,etc) and drag up or down.
- Using these tips, you should be able to zoom in to see the subwaves, that look like a garbled mess on the zoomed out view.
To summarize what we see in the chart:
- We are in a big, bearish impulse wave down from the top of 9200 on Mar 21.
- The fall below 8300 that happened this morning confirms it… any hope that the wave up from 8200 to 9000 (Mar 23-24) was a going to continue a new bull run from the 7300 bottom has been lost.
- We are now in the explosive wave 3 of the downward impulse wave. The third wave of a 5 wave impulse is always the largest move of the 5.
- Check out my next post for a zoom in on the details of this subwave 3 down… i’m not sure if you’ll be able to zoom in on this chart properly (see the tips above).
- I don’t like to predict much more than the current wave so take anything beyond this wave 3 down with a grain of salt. But a retest of the 7300 is becoming a high probability.
Note that I’m not a bear…. I’m willing to trade both directions. If the chart tells me its going down, I’m not going to stick blindly to bullish hopes and lose money. That being said, I am a long term bull… I want to see crypto succeed, and I know after we finally find the bottom of this bear trend, we will rise like a phoenix, and hit awesome new highs by the end of this year. So hopefully we hit 7300 as a double bottom and begin a bull run. If we break 7300, then break the previous low of 6000ish (5800), then at minimum we are in an extended bear market that could last into the summer, at worst until the end of the year or beyond.
Thanks, please follow, like and share!
The more feedback and followers I get, the more time and energy I’ll put into these posts!
LLCoolRS
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, and is given for educational purposes only. I make the charts, you make your own trades. Never blindly follow internet advice for your financial decisions... any analyst can and will be wrong.
Comment:
Note that I haven't completed my subwave 3 analysis for the chart above... I have subwave 3 hitting the 1.618 extension around 7950... but the current action shows that we may have completed it at the 1-to-1 extension already. Look out for my next update after I count waves and check fib levels!
Comment:
Let me also say that I'm always considering both possibilities, bear and bull. There is still a bullish scenario possible. 7300-9200 is the bullish impulse up. Instead of 5 waves down and a continued bear trend, this could only be a 3 wave (ABC) correction, then we will continue the bull run up. When I have time I will chart and post this bullish possibility, to counter my bearish argument. Basically, if this is only an ABC correction down, we shouldn't see the bottom go much below 8000, then the bull rally up would continue.