Hi guys,
Things are getting nutty and wild in bitcoin -2.59% land! In our downward wave 3, subwaves 4 and 5 threw my 15 min analysis for a loop!
In my chart, Ive updated the subwave breakdown for the finish of subwave 4 and 5 of wave 3 down. Here are tips on using the chart to zoom in:
- hover your mouse near bottom center of the chart. You'll see five buttons: < + refresh - >
- Click refresh to get closer and the plus or minus to zoom
- To change the scale, click the right hand scale (8500,8600,8700,etc) and drag up or down.
- Using these tips, you should be able to zoom in to see the subwaves more clearly
I'm going to step back from my 15 minute timeframe subwave analysis, and look at the bigger picture right now. We are at a super critical juncture for bitcoin -2.59% and all of crypto right now. Im not too worried about trading a subwave for a little profit.... what we are talking about right now is either the breakdown of bitcoin -2.59% , likely to new lows past 5800, or the glorious return of the bull as the large wave 3 will shoot bitcoin -2.59% past 10000 then on to higher targets.
This is expanding on my previous post "BTC! Subwave 4 details and lesson on trading breakouts!" where I touched on both the bullish and bearish scenarios:
THE BEAR
The bearish scenario that I’ve been posting up to now is the PURPLE wave:
- We have completed purple wave 3 down, and are seeing the start of purple wave 4 up.
- I have fib level estimates given for purple waves 4 and 5 but don’t read into it to much…. just showing the bearish trend down for a retest at 7300.
- When wave 5 breaks below 7708, which is the low from wave 3, the bearish scenario is confirmed and the pink bullish scenario is dead. Until that point waves 4 and 5 of the bear could still be considered subwaves 1 and 2 of the upward bull impulse.
THE BULL
The bullish scenario, which I have not yet charted is the PINK wave:
- The real bottom for the bull run was 5850 back on Feb 5th.
- 9300 down to 7300 is the A-B-C correction for the bull run, which I’ve charted under the Bearish view as waves 1-2-3 of the 5 wave impulse down.
- The 7300 low for wave C of the Bull run cannot be broken.
- Note that the bull run is only confirm on the 5th subwave up, AFTER the second peak of the 4th subwave is past. This is because subwaves 1-2-3 could actually be the A-B-C waves of the bearish wave 4. Only when that subwave 4 peak is past, then we know we are not dealing with the A-B-C of the bear.
The interesting aspect of comparing the two scenarios, is that their waves mirror each other and we can't confirm which scenario we are in until much later! That means we can keep trading subwaves.... if we dare! The more wild the price action gets, the more skill you are going to need to trade the waves.... without experience and advanced 8.70% trading techinques, you will take loses trying to trade subwaves! I myself have taken a sizable hit from the subwave 4 and 5 shenanagins, even with my stop losses and laddered orders.
If you are relatively inexperienced, you really have to look at yourself and ask the question: Do I want to make the best, smartest decisions that will give me the best chance to profit, or am I always going to gamble and take a short or long position, even if the risk increases and the trade loses pile up?
Asset management is the top skill needed to be profitable trading crypto.... not technical analysis skills. You need to know when to sit on the sideline is cash when things get to risky, then jump back in when an awesome opportunity presents itself, like the bullish or bearish confirmations I've described above.
If you guys have questions or don't understand this analysis, please comment below and lets get the discussion rolling!
LLCoolRS
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, and is given for educational purposes only. I make the charts, you make your own trades. Never blindly follow internet advice for your financial decisions... any analyst can and will
Things are getting nutty and wild in bitcoin -2.59% land! In our downward wave 3, subwaves 4 and 5 threw my 15 min analysis for a loop!
In my chart, Ive updated the subwave breakdown for the finish of subwave 4 and 5 of wave 3 down. Here are tips on using the chart to zoom in:
- hover your mouse near bottom center of the chart. You'll see five buttons: < + refresh - >
- Click refresh to get closer and the plus or minus to zoom
- To change the scale, click the right hand scale (8500,8600,8700,etc) and drag up or down.
- Using these tips, you should be able to zoom in to see the subwaves more clearly
I'm going to step back from my 15 minute timeframe subwave analysis, and look at the bigger picture right now. We are at a super critical juncture for bitcoin -2.59% and all of crypto right now. Im not too worried about trading a subwave for a little profit.... what we are talking about right now is either the breakdown of bitcoin -2.59% , likely to new lows past 5800, or the glorious return of the bull as the large wave 3 will shoot bitcoin -2.59% past 10000 then on to higher targets.
This is expanding on my previous post "BTC! Subwave 4 details and lesson on trading breakouts!" where I touched on both the bullish and bearish scenarios:
THE BEAR
The bearish scenario that I’ve been posting up to now is the PURPLE wave:
- We have completed purple wave 3 down, and are seeing the start of purple wave 4 up.
- I have fib level estimates given for purple waves 4 and 5 but don’t read into it to much…. just showing the bearish trend down for a retest at 7300.
- When wave 5 breaks below 7708, which is the low from wave 3, the bearish scenario is confirmed and the pink bullish scenario is dead. Until that point waves 4 and 5 of the bear could still be considered subwaves 1 and 2 of the upward bull impulse.
THE BULL
The bullish scenario, which I have not yet charted is the PINK wave:
- The real bottom for the bull run was 5850 back on Feb 5th.
- 9300 down to 7300 is the A-B-C correction for the bull run, which I’ve charted under the Bearish view as waves 1-2-3 of the 5 wave impulse down.
- The 7300 low for wave C of the Bull run cannot be broken.
- Note that the bull run is only confirm on the 5th subwave up, AFTER the second peak of the 4th subwave is past. This is because subwaves 1-2-3 could actually be the A-B-C waves of the bearish wave 4. Only when that subwave 4 peak is past, then we know we are not dealing with the A-B-C of the bear.
The interesting aspect of comparing the two scenarios, is that their waves mirror each other and we can't confirm which scenario we are in until much later! That means we can keep trading subwaves.... if we dare! The more wild the price action gets, the more skill you are going to need to trade the waves.... without experience and advanced 8.70% trading techinques, you will take loses trying to trade subwaves! I myself have taken a sizable hit from the subwave 4 and 5 shenanagins, even with my stop losses and laddered orders.
If you are relatively inexperienced, you really have to look at yourself and ask the question: Do I want to make the best, smartest decisions that will give me the best chance to profit, or am I always going to gamble and take a short or long position, even if the risk increases and the trade loses pile up?
Asset management is the top skill needed to be profitable trading crypto.... not technical analysis skills. You need to know when to sit on the sideline is cash when things get to risky, then jump back in when an awesome opportunity presents itself, like the bullish or bearish confirmations I've described above.
If you guys have questions or don't understand this analysis, please comment below and lets get the discussion rolling!
LLCoolRS
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, and is given for educational purposes only. I make the charts, you make your own trades. Never blindly follow internet advice for your financial decisions... any analyst can and will
Comment:
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Comment:
Guys, we may already have had a quick completion of wave 4.
Watch the drop below the 7708 threshold I describe above..... if we drop through it with power and volume, watch out below!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Watch the drop below the 7708 threshold I describe above..... if we drop through it with power and volume, watch out below!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"Bullish Scenario: Low of ABC down to 7708, then the bull run resumes"