Good morning, traders. My chart is a bit full today, but I wanted to make sure you see the confluence that I will be speaking about below. With the continued pressure on $10K last night, I was stopped out of my long in slight profit and am short to $9500. I am expecting price to bounce at the $9300-$9500 level. We can see that price is printing an almost perfect ABC correction and we appear to be in the 5th wave (ending diagonal) of Wave C.
As I have been mentioning, the 4H S1 pivot sits at $9400 (yes, I am exiting a bit earlier than the expected completion of the move. Liquidity is everything when entering/exiting) and finds confluence with the daily pitchfork support, ascending dotted line support, 1.272 extension of Wave A, and the top of the demand zone. The only thing that hasn't happened is the 4H RSI hitting oversold. At this point, we may not even get it with this expected move down, however we will have a flat RSI (just above oversold) if we don't and that is usually indicative of an impending reversal.
We can see that demand is growing down here while supply, overall, is decreasing. The flag (descending wedge) printing has a potential target of ~$17000, based on the height of the flagpole, depending on when price moves above wedge resistance. We can also derive a target of ~$13540 based on the height of the descending wedge. If we get a bounce from the mid-$9Ks as expected and price prints an ABC rather than 1-5, then that lower target should be the expected cap on upward movement. In that case, we would expect to see price print a double combo (WXY) or triple combo (WXYXZ) correction. If that happens, then we would likely see the CME gap in the $8000s filled. However, remember, it does not have to fill right now even if it's going to fill eventually. Previously, it's taken up to more than a month for a gap to fill on a few separate occasions, so it's not unheard of that it doesn't fill before heading up higher.
My expectation at this time, based on the appearance of clean ABC movement, is that we are completing reaccumulation after decline with a spring (once you make this chart yours via the directions below, zoom into the 1H to see the labeling of the TR). This means that I am expecting price to reach toward $17000 rather than stopping at $13540. But understand, that does not mean that I am long without thought now. This is nothing more than my current view of what's going on. As price moves, new information may come in that makes me lean the other way, in which case I would close out my long and go short. But that is unknown at this time. In either case, the move should be up toward that ~$13500 level at the least. Never forget, a good trader is fluid, not rigid, and able to trade with new information. Be sure to join me every week day morning at the YouTube address below for a video look at the market where I go more in-depth and often look at other cryptos and/or markets as well.
Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!"
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
As I have been mentioning, the 4H S1 pivot sits at $9400 (yes, I am exiting a bit earlier than the expected completion of the move. Liquidity is everything when entering/exiting) and finds confluence with the daily pitchfork support, ascending dotted line support, 1.272 extension of Wave A, and the top of the demand zone. The only thing that hasn't happened is the 4H RSI hitting oversold. At this point, we may not even get it with this expected move down, however we will have a flat RSI (just above oversold) if we don't and that is usually indicative of an impending reversal.
We can see that demand is growing down here while supply, overall, is decreasing. The flag (descending wedge) printing has a potential target of ~$17000, based on the height of the flagpole, depending on when price moves above wedge resistance. We can also derive a target of ~$13540 based on the height of the descending wedge. If we get a bounce from the mid-$9Ks as expected and price prints an ABC rather than 1-5, then that lower target should be the expected cap on upward movement. In that case, we would expect to see price print a double combo (WXY) or triple combo (WXYXZ) correction. If that happens, then we would likely see the CME gap in the $8000s filled. However, remember, it does not have to fill right now even if it's going to fill eventually. Previously, it's taken up to more than a month for a gap to fill on a few separate occasions, so it's not unheard of that it doesn't fill before heading up higher.
My expectation at this time, based on the appearance of clean ABC movement, is that we are completing reaccumulation after decline with a spring (once you make this chart yours via the directions below, zoom into the 1H to see the labeling of the TR). This means that I am expecting price to reach toward $17000 rather than stopping at $13540. But understand, that does not mean that I am long without thought now. This is nothing more than my current view of what's going on. As price moves, new information may come in that makes me lean the other way, in which case I would close out my long and go short. But that is unknown at this time. In either case, the move should be up toward that ~$13500 level at the least. Never forget, a good trader is fluid, not rigid, and able to trade with new information. Be sure to join me every week day morning at the YouTube address below for a video look at the market where I go more in-depth and often look at other cryptos and/or markets as well.
Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!"
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
Comment:
Here's the 1H if you make the chart yours and zoom into that TF.
Comment:
Strong move up as we've seen previously the past couple of days, but so far only 3 waves and the last one is less than 1.618 extension. So it may be Wave 4 of the ending diagonal still playing out. Watching for a break above Wave 2 and the pivot on the low TF to likely invalidate the count.