XBTUSD Fibonacci Retrace

We observe a fibonacci retraces again on XBTUSD.

This idea pre-empts and assumes a rejection of B wave before 5134 (0.236 retrace).
Breaking upwards from 5134 with volume nullifies this idea.

Due to lack of support below the 4755 - 4779 range (0.5 retrace), if C wave breaks 4755 with volume,
we expect a 0.786 retrace to 4355.

While we expect some support at 0.618 retrace, we are pessimistic due to the sharp rise on the left without establishing support zones.

This presents a good but risky short opportunity, considering the shift in market sentiment towards a bullish bias.
We plan to sit this out with laddered buy orders across fibonacci support zones.

This is aligned with our long term play (see related idea below).

Gambarimasu. I do my best.

Comment:

Today we see a break past 5134 (0.236 retrace) with volume and conviction.

Fortunately, we did not take a short position in this risky situation.
Unfortunately, none of our buys have been triggered, as we did not expect the second bounce from 4924 (0.382 retrace).

We further concluded that the correction is most likely complete as it also coincided with 100 MA on the 4hours

We have now adjusted our analysis to bullish continuation, and will be adding to our buys, while watching 5134 (0.236 retrace) very closely.

Gambarimasu. I do my best.

Comment:

Although not indicated in the published chart, our strategy to buy after confirming that 0.382 fib level held, has worked well.

Now laddering exits from 5750 upwards, while watching previous top of 5474 closely.

Will stop updating this idea.

Gambarimasu. I do my best.