Good morning, traders. I've noticed a lot of "the sky is falling" coming out of CT after this weekend, and calls for $7500 and lower. In reality, the only thing that's really happened, though, is that price followed last week's triangle outline. Until it breaks down, this is the pattern that traders should be paying attention to at this time. It is possible that this wave down is a 5 subwave C wave (recently just printed subwave 3, so we should get a small corrective subwave 4 if that's the case), but currently it looks like an ABC just like the previous two wave sets.
Things we know, which are important: 1) volume continues to drop suggesting this is reaccumulation, not distribution (in other words, we should still be on the first wave set from the $3100 level), 2) price is currently printing a descending wedge after having printed descending, and then ascending, wedges, 3) daily Stoch RSI is bottomed out and RSI is nearing a break of its resistance (suggesting a turn back upward), and 4) 12H RSI is printing bullish divergence with bottomed out Stoch RSI. I believe we will see a strong move back up, above $11000, within the next 24 hours. This will bring price back above the daily pivot which has been supporting the bounces for the past three weeks.
The 4H RSI is nearing a break through its resistance and Stoch RSI is nearing a break above oversold. We can see price printing a Spring just below the green local TR. We can also see that price has multiple alternating support/resistance touches of the current descending wedge, with a touch of resistance (and, likely, break through) coming next. The 1H RSI is also nearing a break of its resistance, however Stoch RSI is in overbought. Remember, the 4H TF is dominant over the 1H TF so it's not a big deal.
I will also be attaching a daily Kraken analysis below which outlines the big picture. Why Kraken? Because it is the exchange that has had the large wicks that other exchanges haven't had. And when it comes to EW, the big picture should generally align across all exchanges. So, we can use those outlier wicks to help us likely understand where we may be in the large wave count. This also explains why we are currently printing a pennant (symmetrical triangle), as they usually occur in the 4th or B waves. That would make price currently in the 4th wave with the 5th yet to come.
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Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!"
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
Things we know, which are important: 1) volume continues to drop suggesting this is reaccumulation, not distribution (in other words, we should still be on the first wave set from the $3100 level), 2) price is currently printing a descending wedge after having printed descending, and then ascending, wedges, 3) daily Stoch RSI is bottomed out and RSI is nearing a break of its resistance (suggesting a turn back upward), and 4) 12H RSI is printing bullish divergence with bottomed out Stoch RSI. I believe we will see a strong move back up, above $11000, within the next 24 hours. This will bring price back above the daily pivot which has been supporting the bounces for the past three weeks.
The 4H RSI is nearing a break through its resistance and Stoch RSI is nearing a break above oversold. We can see price printing a Spring just below the green local TR. We can also see that price has multiple alternating support/resistance touches of the current descending wedge, with a touch of resistance (and, likely, break through) coming next. The 1H RSI is also nearing a break of its resistance, however Stoch RSI is in overbought. Remember, the 4H TF is dominant over the 1H TF so it's not a big deal.
I will also be attaching a daily Kraken analysis below which outlines the big picture. Why Kraken? Because it is the exchange that has had the large wicks that other exchanges haven't had. And when it comes to EW, the big picture should generally align across all exchanges. So, we can use those outlier wicks to help us likely understand where we may be in the large wave count. This also explains why we are currently printing a pennant (symmetrical triangle), as they usually occur in the 4th or B waves. That would make price currently in the 4th wave with the 5th yet to come.
_____________________________________________________________
Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!"
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
Comment:
Big picture analysis via Kraken. Large wick at ii not found on other exchanges helps denote subwave 2 of wave 3. Wave 4 occurs at the top of the 2018 TR, as expected. Target based on the height of wave 3 (flagpole) is around $22500-$23000. However, my expectation is to at least touch the R5 daily pivot at $27000, but likely a bit higher. That would be the expectation is trading pivots based on the EW count. It also takes into consideration price discovery which will occur once price surpasses the previous ATH. At that point, everyone including algos and bots should flip to long and people will be FOMOing in. We also do not see bearish divergence on the daily yet which we usually expect to see on wave 5.
