As we enter the New Year and New Decade of the Roaring 2020s, I would like to make a post that I might one day look back on with a smile. Considering the hubris inherent in the title of my post, there's a good chance we'll tap into resistance with a fake-out/sfp before more sideways action. That said, I'd like to share my thoughts of the current BTC price action and in the future, present my ideas on TradingView as a short-term trading journal with added benefit of potential public scrutiny to keep my positions in check.
After several years of exploring a wide variety of technical tools, I've come to find that simple works best for my personal style of trading. As a simple trader, my primary focus is on basic support and resistance. For bitcoin, the weekly time frames provide excellent levels of SR to pay attention to.
Currently, we are beginning to brush up against weekly resistance at 7850. As we are in an established downtrend, this is an ideal area to begin looking for shorts. A few simple indicators I like paying attention to point to the beginning of a potential major reversal in BTC trend.
Outside of basic S/R, the only other things I really like paying attention to in BTC are the derivatives funding rates and the parabolic SAR. Currently, funding remains negative and as such, I will not be placing a short here. The parabolic SAR is also an incredible tool for identifying major trend changes in BTC on the weekly scale. If BTC is to break 7874, we will see the first trend change in SAR since it signaled a top near 11k.
Thus, I will be entering long on a daily break and close above 7900, with stops set below the yearly open at 7160 and an initial target of ~9000. Cheers to my fellow BTC traders and may 2020 be a year of success and learning for all!
After several years of exploring a wide variety of technical tools, I've come to find that simple works best for my personal style of trading. As a simple trader, my primary focus is on basic support and resistance. For bitcoin, the weekly time frames provide excellent levels of SR to pay attention to.
Currently, we are beginning to brush up against weekly resistance at 7850. As we are in an established downtrend, this is an ideal area to begin looking for shorts. A few simple indicators I like paying attention to point to the beginning of a potential major reversal in BTC trend.
Outside of basic S/R, the only other things I really like paying attention to in BTC are the derivatives funding rates and the parabolic SAR. Currently, funding remains negative and as such, I will not be placing a short here. The parabolic SAR is also an incredible tool for identifying major trend changes in BTC on the weekly scale. If BTC is to break 7874, we will see the first trend change in SAR since it signaled a top near 11k.
Thus, I will be entering long on a daily break and close above 7900, with stops set below the yearly open at 7160 and an initial target of ~9000. Cheers to my fellow BTC traders and may 2020 be a year of success and learning for all!
Trade active:
Moved stops to 7500. Important to keep emotions in check and remember that we are still in a macro downtrend. Time to sit back patiently and enjoy the ride! ~9000 is a tall order and I will be watching PA diligently over the next few days/weeks. As Livermore famously said, "It was never my thinking but always my sitting that made me money."
Trade active:
Closed 1/2 of my position at ~8825 and moved stops into profit at 8k. Going to let the remaining 1/2 of this one ride but very happy to take some profits on a ~1k move for now. Will look to potentially reload on a pullback to ~8200 and even the neckline of the H&S bottom depending on how it gets there. After longing the "bottom" unsuccessfully before this most recent consolidation I am grateful to have nailed this trade so far, here's to a great start to the New Year!
Trade closed: target reached:
Apologies for the delayed update as I've been traveling in Hawaii!
Stops were moved to 9k on the remaining 1/2 of my position once bitcoin smashed through the level and I was stopped out on the recent retrace. Very happy with this trade as I followed my system and turned a profit. I believe 9.5k + will be happening sooner or later although a little consolidation here would be great. 6 month bear market is over IMO and I am looking forward to a great 2020 for bitcoin and happy trading to all!
Stops were moved to 9k on the remaining 1/2 of my position once bitcoin smashed through the level and I was stopped out on the recent retrace. Very happy with this trade as I followed my system and turned a profit. I believe 9.5k + will be happening sooner or later although a little consolidation here would be great. 6 month bear market is over IMO and I am looking forward to a great 2020 for bitcoin and happy trading to all!