Hey what's up y'all its Bitforthepeople here. Btc has been in a descending triangle making consistent lower highs ever since we had made a recovery run to 13.8k in late June. By definition "The descending triangle is a bearish formation that usually forms during a downtrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when descending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of an uptrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, descending triangles are bearish patterns that indicate distribution". I agree with this definition and believe that the longer term perspective of bitcoin is bearish however in the shorter term, month of September, I believe a quick run temporarily breaking this triangle is very possible. Regardless of this long term bearish pattern my reasoning for this short term bullish scenario is because of a development of an inverse head and shoulders pattern as well as a symmetrical triangle (different from descending triangle) both on the daily time frame. Take a look at the graph I have the inverse head and shoulders outlined in black and the symmetrical triangle outlined in green. Both of these patterns are bullish patterns with potential for upside break out. Resistance at the neckline of the IHS is marked on the graph in blue (10934). In addition to this resistance of the neckline the upper line of resistance for the symmetrical triangle is at (10300). Its going to be tough to break above these resistance levels to see 11k again. The question that is on everyone's minds is given we break above this triangle will we seek continuation to 13.8k? and I believe the answer to this is no we aren't quite there yet possibly at the end of the year.
What i believe is going to happen is we will see one last attempt of the bulls to push up/fakeout to the price of 10.8-11.6 and get shot down. If this was to play out be prepared for a quick rise up followed by a violent fall. This long term pattern of consistent lower highs has proven to me that sell pressure has been dominant every attempt the bulls have had the opportunity to push the price up. The bears definitely have control and momentum as of now. Btc within the triangle is tightening up and coming to a conclusion btc has to pick a side.
Assuming we break downward of this symmetrical triangle and the IHS is invalidated expect a violent fall to test the EMA on the weekly at 9800 and if that breaks at 9500 range which is the support of the longer term descending triangle. I am not a guru and to be honest its quite tough to tell you with confidence which way btc is going to move so you are going to have to decide whether you are bullish or bearish. The good thing about a setup like this is that there are clear stop loss targets to get out of the trade both bullish and bearish.
Bullish signal:
XBT:Bitmex enter at current price market. 10080-10200.
Risk-Mid
Lev-5-25x
Stop loss 10069- below previous daily low/symmetrical triangle support
Take profit- 10261, 10450, 10600 (conservative targets)
Take profit - 10600, 10995, 11400 (aggressive targets)
(remember to ladder in your take profit targets its vital for success in trading.)
Bearish signal:
XBT: Bitmex enter at current price market. 10100-10250.
Risk Mid
Lev-5-25x
Stop loss 10270- above previous daily high/ middle bollinger band and moving average
Take profit- 10070, 9880, 9800 (conservative targets)
Take profit - 9820, 9470, 8400
(remember to ladder in your take profit targets its vital for success in trading.)
And please remember to not feel forced to take a trade if you are uncertain just sit on your hands and wait till the next move. Ill be back with an update don't worry. Plenty of opportunities are yet to come! Let Me know how it goes and CHEERS GOOD LUCK AND HAPPY TRADING.
**This is not financial advice and is only used to educate. Trade at your own risk and DYOR**
What i believe is going to happen is we will see one last attempt of the bulls to push up/fakeout to the price of 10.8-11.6 and get shot down. If this was to play out be prepared for a quick rise up followed by a violent fall. This long term pattern of consistent lower highs has proven to me that sell pressure has been dominant every attempt the bulls have had the opportunity to push the price up. The bears definitely have control and momentum as of now. Btc within the triangle is tightening up and coming to a conclusion btc has to pick a side.
Assuming we break downward of this symmetrical triangle and the IHS is invalidated expect a violent fall to test the EMA on the weekly at 9800 and if that breaks at 9500 range which is the support of the longer term descending triangle. I am not a guru and to be honest its quite tough to tell you with confidence which way btc is going to move so you are going to have to decide whether you are bullish or bearish. The good thing about a setup like this is that there are clear stop loss targets to get out of the trade both bullish and bearish.
Bullish signal:
XBT:Bitmex enter at current price market. 10080-10200.
Risk-Mid
Lev-5-25x
Stop loss 10069- below previous daily low/symmetrical triangle support
Take profit- 10261, 10450, 10600 (conservative targets)
Take profit - 10600, 10995, 11400 (aggressive targets)
(remember to ladder in your take profit targets its vital for success in trading.)
Bearish signal:
XBT: Bitmex enter at current price market. 10100-10250.
Risk Mid
Lev-5-25x
Stop loss 10270- above previous daily high/ middle bollinger band and moving average
Take profit- 10070, 9880, 9800 (conservative targets)
Take profit - 9820, 9470, 8400
(remember to ladder in your take profit targets its vital for success in trading.)
And please remember to not feel forced to take a trade if you are uncertain just sit on your hands and wait till the next move. Ill be back with an update don't worry. Plenty of opportunities are yet to come! Let Me know how it goes and CHEERS GOOD LUCK AND HAPPY TRADING.
**This is not financial advice and is only used to educate. Trade at your own risk and DYOR**
Comment:
Congrats to the bears who have shorted this move. BTC dumped below the support on the symmetrical triangle. We didn't get the bullish follow through I was looking for. Bears who have taken the short signal I hope you have taken profit :).The rsi on all short term time frames are very oversold a bounce is likely to occur.