Technical analysis of gold
Last Friday, after the publication of two important economic reports, gold had sharp movements on both sides.
The US NFP report beat expectations, so the market initially moved lower, but after a few minutes, the price reversed as the data was not as good as it seemed. A little later, we had the ISM Services PMI and that's where the real shock started.
In addition to the overall data, the employment sub-index reached levels only seen during the global financial crisis and the Covid recession.
This gave gold a boost but in a strange move the price reversed shortly afterwards and ended the day lower than it started. In the big picture, prices should continue to trend higher as long as the market continues to decline further.
daily chart,
We can see that gold has been steadily falling from the 2080 resistance following the release of stronger US data. We got two weak reports last Friday, but it hasn't reversed the selling price.
From a risk management perspective, buyers would have a good risk for a setup around the trend line, where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level intersects.
On the other hand, sellers want to see the price lower to invalidate the bullish setup and extend the decline to the 1972 level.
4 hour chart,
We can more clearly see the downward jump in the NFP report and the upward spike in the PMI and ISM releases.
Sellers relied on the downtrend line to close in for a break in the main uptrend line around the 2010 level.
Buyers need the price not to cross the downtrend line to confirm the resumption of the uptrend and position for new highs.
1 hour chart
We can see that the recent price has been very erratic and across the range. There is no clear level where to lean other than the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, the main uptrend line and the downtrend line.
Buyers may want to split their positions and rely on Fibonacci levels and uptrend lines. On the other hand, sellers should wait for another pullback in the downtrend line before taking new short positions.
This week is essentially blank on the data front, with only two notable releases scheduled for Thursday, when we'll get the US CPI report and US jobless claims figures. Strong data is likely to weigh on gold while weak figures should boost it.
Last Friday, after the publication of two important economic reports, gold had sharp movements on both sides.
The US NFP report beat expectations, so the market initially moved lower, but after a few minutes, the price reversed as the data was not as good as it seemed. A little later, we had the ISM Services PMI and that's where the real shock started.
In addition to the overall data, the employment sub-index reached levels only seen during the global financial crisis and the Covid recession.
This gave gold a boost but in a strange move the price reversed shortly afterwards and ended the day lower than it started. In the big picture, prices should continue to trend higher as long as the market continues to decline further.
daily chart,
We can see that gold has been steadily falling from the 2080 resistance following the release of stronger US data. We got two weak reports last Friday, but it hasn't reversed the selling price.
From a risk management perspective, buyers would have a good risk for a setup around the trend line, where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level intersects.
On the other hand, sellers want to see the price lower to invalidate the bullish setup and extend the decline to the 1972 level.
4 hour chart,
We can more clearly see the downward jump in the NFP report and the upward spike in the PMI and ISM releases.
Sellers relied on the downtrend line to close in for a break in the main uptrend line around the 2010 level.
Buyers need the price not to cross the downtrend line to confirm the resumption of the uptrend and position for new highs.
1 hour chart
We can see that the recent price has been very erratic and across the range. There is no clear level where to lean other than the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, the main uptrend line and the downtrend line.
Buyers may want to split their positions and rely on Fibonacci levels and uptrend lines. On the other hand, sellers should wait for another pullback in the downtrend line before taking new short positions.
This week is essentially blank on the data front, with only two notable releases scheduled for Thursday, when we'll get the US CPI report and US jobless claims figures. Strong data is likely to weigh on gold while weak figures should boost it.