neilscott_1
Short

Goldfingers beware- top may be in......

OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
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For all those doom and a gloom bears that have thrived in the recent rise in gold , the charts are suggesting a top. The fibonacci pattern hitting key support levels throughout the recent rise is very supportive of this idea.
What gold fanatics are not realising that there has been a huge paradigm shift in the last ten years in the understaning of quantitative easing ( QE ) or money printing as a counterweight to the imense deflationary power of technology and globaisation. The dollar's value is written into billions of contracts with social meaning that sets its value as a medium of exchange. This model will be defended at all costs by goverments especially in the current covid 19 crisis. The 2008 money printing went along pretty much bubble free - there was no massive upsurge in commodity prices as technology showed its pervasive strength with new efficiencies in communications and energy conversion and new jobs.
Printing money does not automatically lead to inflation . There must be a massive shift in employment contract value or a massive rise in main commodity prices (such as the oil crisis) to drive higher prices. With the significant support by central governments, there is unlikely to be a breakdown of the scale needed to hyper inflate.
Perhaps this is the last opportunity to bail out of gold before it settles at its true economic price of production of around 1000USD or lower with these new low oil prices. It would only take one government to sell gold to pay for covid 19 or wake up at the futility of holding gold reserves in these modern times of QE and the bubble will burst. The risks are definitely to the downside from here.

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