Hammer Reversal on the monthly?
January looks to have painted a hammer candle on the monthly chart.
The last time this occurred was January 2020 (the candle looks more like a doji in 2020) and 2 months later we formed a bottom after the commonly named Corona crash.
Volatility has been in a consistent downtrend since that market bottom and is now near all time lows on the VIX, UVXY at all time lows. Willy has turned up on the monthly and RSI now trending up. Yield curve extremely inverted and Bonds, equities, etc. at oversold levels on most indicators combined with a overall market sentiment at extreme extreme greed on the CNN fear/greed indicator.
If the 2020 pattern is repeating then we would see a spike to highs in UVXY by end of March 2023 and a subsequent decline which would be a leading indicator for a bottom in equities. Though due to inflation, whether or not central banks will print trillions to prop up markets like they did in 2020 is the big question left. Usually when a market crash comes the Fed will cut rates as the market drops (which doesn't stop the crash it simply continues on despite the drop in rates) and that could mean they will in fact start purchasing bonds again in an attempt to prop up the market. Bond yields and the fund fund rate move in tandem, with bond yields leading the way.
The last time this occurred was January 2020 (the candle looks more like a doji in 2020) and 2 months later we formed a bottom after the commonly named Corona crash.
Volatility has been in a consistent downtrend since that market bottom and is now near all time lows on the VIX, UVXY at all time lows. Willy has turned up on the monthly and RSI now trending up. Yield curve extremely inverted and Bonds, equities, etc. at oversold levels on most indicators combined with a overall market sentiment at extreme extreme greed on the CNN fear/greed indicator.
If the 2020 pattern is repeating then we would see a spike to highs in UVXY by end of March 2023 and a subsequent decline which would be a leading indicator for a bottom in equities. Though due to inflation, whether or not central banks will print trillions to prop up markets like they did in 2020 is the big question left. Usually when a market crash comes the Fed will cut rates as the market drops (which doesn't stop the crash it simply continues on despite the drop in rates) and that could mean they will in fact start purchasing bonds again in an attempt to prop up the market. Bond yields and the fund fund rate move in tandem, with bond yields leading the way.