this is my analysis based on 4H both technical and fundamental written by STA/ Q.Jimmy
since the boost that oil market had in early Q1 of 2016 from 26ish low toward 42ish high was a great bull run, in which it considered as technical Elliot impulsive wave ( 1st wave or A wave ),based on this we will trace the price movement to see if it is an 1st wave or A wave correction( remember in both ways market have to move up to exceed that 42ish area.
fundamentally speaking the hope that investors get from US EIA, quot that " crude oil reached the bottom" , rumors that OPEC will cut production,and the true weakness that the DXY witness because of dovish speech from FED, simplify this impulse move as some investors were building long positions and bear investors cut their short positions.
based on this true trading journal what will happen next, dose the oil market supported at these levels to move higher or not !!
42ish area high was a strong level of resistant because investors became irritant about the rumors and have no faith to keep their investment on crude market, based on Elliot wave this drop toward 35ish area was an simple zigzag ABC with A=C, but did we end the correction cycle!!!, from my point of view i think we will get a complex correction toward 32ish area, because the bounce that happened from 35ish area was irrelevant, and not that important, nonetheless the 42ish area is a solid resistant and cant be wiped out easily, the only thing is that the market reached 38.2 retracement from 26ish low to 42ish high, where the bounce happened ( personally i started to build long positions there and closed them at 38ish area) as you can see on the chart.
this is all for now.
and please do not hesitate to ask me any question regarding my post .
since the boost that oil market had in early Q1 of 2016 from 26ish low toward 42ish high was a great bull run, in which it considered as technical Elliot impulsive wave ( 1st wave or A wave ),based on this we will trace the price movement to see if it is an 1st wave or A wave correction( remember in both ways market have to move up to exceed that 42ish area.
fundamentally speaking the hope that investors get from US EIA, quot that " crude oil reached the bottom" , rumors that OPEC will cut production,and the true weakness that the DXY witness because of dovish speech from FED, simplify this impulse move as some investors were building long positions and bear investors cut their short positions.
based on this true trading journal what will happen next, dose the oil market supported at these levels to move higher or not !!
42ish area high was a strong level of resistant because investors became irritant about the rumors and have no faith to keep their investment on crude market, based on Elliot wave this drop toward 35ish area was an simple zigzag ABC with A=C, but did we end the correction cycle!!!, from my point of view i think we will get a complex correction toward 32ish area, because the bounce that happened from 35ish area was irrelevant, and not that important, nonetheless the 42ish area is a solid resistant and cant be wiped out easily, the only thing is that the market reached 38.2 retracement from 26ish low to 42ish high, where the bounce happened ( personally i started to build long positions there and closed them at 38ish area) as you can see on the chart.
this is all for now.
and please do not hesitate to ask me any question regarding my post .
