Currently we can see that the divergence on the is even greater than when we were looking for the red wave iv, a "buy" signal could provide a great entry for the short term bounce.
I should also note that we can see that wave (ii) blue lasted about 7-8 days, it wouldn't surprise me to see the expected wave (iv) in blue last about the same duration... the arrows in the chart had to be fitted for illustrative purposes of direction and price, not so much time. So please consider that I suspect this correction would last a similar duration to what we say with the sideways drifting wave (ii) in blue.
There are 2 main scenarios I'm envisioning with this correction, illustrated with RED and BLUE arrows. I'm expecting the structure to be the same, namely 3 wave advance, followed by a decline to new lows which has the potential to buy for a multi-year bull market.
The only difference between these two scenarios, is how high the correction is expected to go.
Red - Target 41.85-42.00
Blue - Target 43.35 - 43.70
I've linked 2 previous charts on oil I've posted. The most recent which captured the wave iv (red) rally, but overestimated it. And a previous chart which puts the BLUE labels into context.
Ultimately I think Oil will get to around 38 before the "mega" buy and smart money moves in. Let's wait and see.
Reasoning here. Got a long in at $39.50 earlier today
Nevertheless, your counting is imo only the third wave down. In last June we finished a final wave ((4)) up as an ABC; so either this was a (A) wave of ((4)) to be follwed by another (B) and (C)or is was ((4)) already. In the last case the final wave ((5)) down should be counted as a 5-wave. Your counting of wave (3) is correct, but wave (1) started at ~~ 51,50$ with wave (2) at ~~ 50,50$.Meaning that we still have a long way down to expect.
On a daily basis there is no divergence yet to see; in wave (iii) of (3) divergence is beginning to show.
SO more downside to see
I would find it helpful if you could link a chart for me illustrating the idea you've described concerning the count. Thanks for the comment, I'm always interested in engaging with others, particularly those who understand Elliott, so as to keep my perspectives in check.