2 Scenarios for Oil, the only question is "How High?"

FX:USOIL   CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)
At the risk of sounding like a broken record player, another bounce is on the cards. I say bounce because it's due to be "corrective", which means there will still be a new low to follow.

Currently we can see that the divergence on the MACD is even greater than when we were looking for the red wave iv, a MACD "buy" signal could provide a great entry for the short term bounce.

I should also note that we can see that wave (ii) blue lasted about 7-8 days, it wouldn't surprise me to see the expected wave (iv) in blue last about the same duration... the arrows in the chart had to be fitted for illustrative purposes of direction and price, not so much time. So please consider that I suspect this correction would last a similar duration to what we say with the sideways drifting wave (ii) in blue.

There are 2 main scenarios I'm envisioning with this correction, illustrated with RED and BLUE arrows. I'm expecting the structure to be the same, namely 3 wave advance, followed by a decline to new lows which has the potential to buy for a multi-year bull market.

The only difference between these two scenarios, is how high the correction is expected to go.
Red - Target 41.85-42.00
Blue - Target 43.35 - 43.70

I've linked 2 previous charts on oil I've posted. The most recent which captured the wave iv (red) rally, but overestimated it. And a previous chart which puts the BLUE labels into context.

Ultimately I think Oil will get to around 38 before the "mega" buy and smart money moves in. Let's wait and see.


I am bullish from $39 as well. Very similar thinking, totally different method )
+1 Reply
max_andronichuk DavidBelleFX
Interesting. How are you coming to your conclusions?
DavidBelleFX max_andronichuk

Reasoning here. Got a long in at $39.50 earlier today
Nice counting; can appreciate is as an Elliott fan....
Nevertheless, your counting is imo only the third wave down. In last June we finished a final wave ((4)) up as an ABC; so either this was a (A) wave of ((4)) to be follwed by another (B) and (C)or is was ((4)) already. In the last case the final wave ((5)) down should be counted as a 5-wave. Your counting of wave (3) is correct, but wave (1) started at ~~ 51,50$ with wave (2) at ~~ 50,50$.Meaning that we still have a long way down to expect.
On a daily basis there is no divergence yet to see; in wave (iii) of (3) divergence is beginning to show.
SO more downside to see
It appears that my wave blue (iv) has become a running flat, still looking to terminate at the target of the RED scenario which I still think is in play, although the correction structure has followed a slightly different play.

I would find it helpful if you could link a chart for me illustrating the idea you've described concerning the count. Thanks for the comment, I'm always interested in engaging with others, particularly those who understand Elliott, so as to keep my perspectives in check.
rikkie max_andronichuk
I tried to mark the counting on the daily chart; so, if correct, we are now in the final wave 5 down. Wave 4 has been set as a ZigZag ABC. There is always a chance that this wave 4 could develop as a flat, but I don't think so. Even if so, the wave B of this flat should go down furthrt than now is the case. But let's assume that wave 5 is developing; then we would be in a strong subwave 3 (red) still. A wave that is extending as one would expect in this stage. The correction (4) red , can be a ZZ finished, with further downside. But the final waves (4) are often contracting triangles abcde, and will take much more time before the final subwave (5) red will start going down.
rikkie rikkie
wrong chart as it is yours; please check the chatroom where I put my chart on , on behalf of your mane
i will be taking two short on the break of the channel and the top resistance of 43+
max_andronichuk Sonic_scheme
Best of luck, there's a good chance I'll be on the other side of the trade looking to buy on one more dip (probably hitting below the channel). :)
IMHO, i'm targeting 35. i think this move extend
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