long term oil

good old inverse head and shoulders on the Weekly time frame (long term)

orange lines show intermediate cycle low timing and we are due for a cycle low shortly (forecast date for intermediate cycle low is a forecast based on past timing, it is a Speculative target in the future. do not short this immediately based exclusively on timing of intermediate decline).

i think the move up will be corrective, but regardless its a trade you want to be in.

there are 2 ways to get in this trade once the intermediate cycle is over- either Long Oil (commodities path) or Short USDCAD (forex path)

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short term (days) it is not very clear how the structure will develop.

currently i have oil in a wave 4 which should reverse soon and make a new high.

i am not very certain of oil making this new high. if we rally but fail to make a new high it means the intermediate decline is starting which will result in yearly low for oil.

regardless my current count and 2 fib projections are attached with temporary target for one more new high in 57-58 range, before drop into intermediate low.

if we have a strong drop below 50, there wont be a new high until after intermediate cycle makes a yearly low.

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here is what i am thinking if the inverse head and shoulders forms as forecast:

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