Brent futures and WTI crude surge, echoing OPEC’s bullish demand outlook and tighter global oil inventory projections.
Tightening supply concerns remain at the forefront of the oil price surge. Libya, an OPEC member, recently closed four eastern oil export terminals due to a severe storm. Additionally, Saudi Arabia and Russia have extended their voluntary supply cuts until the end of the year, further limiting the market supply. Russia expects its oil production to decline by 1.5% this year, as per statements from Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov.
concerns about weaker demand, especially from China, are tempering further gains. OPEC remains optimistic about global oil demand growth for the coming years, downplaying macroeconomic challenges like high interest rates and inflation. Market participants are also keenly awaiting U.S. inflation data, specifically watching for cues that could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions.
Considering the supply restrictions, bullish demand outlook, and recent inventory data, the short-term forecast for oil prices leans bullish. However, broader macroeconomic factors, especially regarding China’s demand and U.S. economic data, may introduce volatility.
Presently, the price is near the main resistance zone of 90.10 to 93.74 and comfortably above the main support zone of 84.89 to 83.81. With these indicators, the market sentiment for Light Crude Oil Futures leans bullish, but caution is advised due to the overbought RSI reading.
Comment:
-Ongoing supply cuts by Saudi Arabia & Russia propel oil prices to a three-session surge.
-China’s stimulus & U.S. economic data underscore the bullish sentiment in crude oil markets.
-Brent and WTI benchmarks are not just riding the wave; they’re making new highs, unseen since last November.
Crude oil prices posted a surge on Monday, for a third consecutive session, driven by the ongoing supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia, coupled with a positive demand outlook from China, the globe’s leading crude oil importer. This uptrend was further supported by China’s latest stimulus measures and promising U.S. economic indicators.
The collective OPEC+ effort, which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia, has agreed to extend their supply reductions until year’s end. With major refineries in China amplifying their output due to lucrative export margins, there is a heightened focus on the upcoming decisions from key central banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policies, as well as important economic data releases from China.
The global appetite for oil is projected to grow by 2.1 million bpd, a forecast that resonates with predictions from both the International Energy Agency and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The underlying sentiment remains bullish for the oil market in the short-term horizon.
-China’s stimulus & U.S. economic data underscore the bullish sentiment in crude oil markets.
-Brent and WTI benchmarks are not just riding the wave; they’re making new highs, unseen since last November.
Crude oil prices posted a surge on Monday, for a third consecutive session, driven by the ongoing supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia, coupled with a positive demand outlook from China, the globe’s leading crude oil importer. This uptrend was further supported by China’s latest stimulus measures and promising U.S. economic indicators.
The collective OPEC+ effort, which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia, has agreed to extend their supply reductions until year’s end. With major refineries in China amplifying their output due to lucrative export margins, there is a heightened focus on the upcoming decisions from key central banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policies, as well as important economic data releases from China.
The global appetite for oil is projected to grow by 2.1 million bpd, a forecast that resonates with predictions from both the International Energy Agency and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The underlying sentiment remains bullish for the oil market in the short-term horizon.
Comment:
Despite recent fluctuations, projections of Brent and WTI oil prices hitting $100 per barrel later in the year persist. A bullish sentiment prevails given the ongoing tightness in the oil market. Concurrently, India’s oil imports have decreased, influenced by maintenance activities and reduced imports from Russia.
In conclusion, while the short-term landscape may witness adjustments, a supply-deficient winter and consistent global demand suggest sustained upward pressure on oil prices.
In terms of support and resistance, the price is positioned near the significant resistance range of 90.10 to 93.74 and has some distance from the main support area between 84.89 to 83.81. Considering these indicators, the current market sentiment for Light Crude Oil Futures leans bullish, but with caution due to the proximity to major resistance. Additionally, taking out the 50-4H moving average with conviction could trigger an acceleration to the downside.
In conclusion, while the short-term landscape may witness adjustments, a supply-deficient winter and consistent global demand suggest sustained upward pressure on oil prices.
In terms of support and resistance, the price is positioned near the significant resistance range of 90.10 to 93.74 and has some distance from the main support area between 84.89 to 83.81. Considering these indicators, the current market sentiment for Light Crude Oil Futures leans bullish, but with caution due to the proximity to major resistance. Additionally, taking out the 50-4H moving average with conviction could trigger an acceleration to the downside.
Comment:
Oil prices mark third consecutive weekly gain on strong Chinese economic signals.
China’s oil consumption hits record highs, with refinery processing at 15.23m barrels/day.
Brent and WTI levels rise to peaks not seen since last November, stoking supply concerns.