USDCAD 1H Bearish RCT Setting Up
Okay so this chart is starting to make more sense but I am still being cautious with my trades using very low risk until I am back to the right frame of mind.
I will start with the green lines that create what appears to be a bullish CURCT price structure which means the green arrow is a buy signal and price should continue to new highs (above 1.2785). The problem is the red lines that define the bearish pattern is a valid bearish pattern. I need to have a invalid bearish pattern for a valid bullish CURCT price structure. Because the red harmonic pattern is valid I see it as the orange XABC future D bullish pattern. (you can't see the orange X on this time frame and D hasn't happened yet). Because the Green bullish CURCT is missing the invalid bearish pattern I don't believe price will make new highs.
The yellow XABCD harmonic pattern (where B is higher than X and D) was a valid bearish CURCT. It had the invalid bullish pattern and two valid bullish patterns in play creating a valid bearish CURCT. Now that it has broken its opposite B level which is the yellow A point on this chart that price structure has completed. Now I am anticipating the yellow BCD right wing to VANISH and it then becomes a left wing on the larger blue XABC future D bearish pattern where D should complete below its B. As long as the blue D completes below its B the large Bearish RCT large yellow arrow is valid. I don't consider it a D point until a LCT candle confirms it. If price closes above the blue B level the large yellow arrow bearish RCT is no longer a valid bearish RCT price structure.
The blue bullish arrow is a lower time frame bullish RCT price structure and it is valid but it has not triggered yet. If that price structure holds and gives a HCT candle above 1.2673 it is a valid structure that should push price up to the blue D which again should finish below the blue B. If price closes below 1.2672 the lower time frame bullish RCT price structure (blue arrow) is no longer valid and I will likely miss any downside move that would most certainly follow. I have used a valid lower time frame price structure as a signal into a higher time frame trade in the opposite direction as a signal itself. The only problem it requires a very large stop. In this case if price closed below 1.2672 that would trigger a sell entry into the larger yellow arrow bearish RCT price structure.
This pair has been incredibly difficult to get my thumb on this week but I am now bearish on this pair where I think the 4H downside target level 1.2350 is now in play. This can change. If price closes above the blue B level then it changes everything. As long as that level holds I am bearish on this pair. If the blue B holds and we get a LCT candle my stop will go above the blue B level as I show on the chart.
Those are my thoughts on this pair at this point in time and if the key levels I went over hold or break you know what I think when/if those events happen. With what price is saying right now I am bearish on this pair.
I will start with the green lines that create what appears to be a bullish CURCT price structure which means the green arrow is a buy signal and price should continue to new highs (above 1.2785). The problem is the red lines that define the bearish pattern is a valid bearish pattern. I need to have a invalid bearish pattern for a valid bullish CURCT price structure. Because the red harmonic pattern is valid I see it as the orange XABC future D bullish pattern. (you can't see the orange X on this time frame and D hasn't happened yet). Because the Green bullish CURCT is missing the invalid bearish pattern I don't believe price will make new highs.
The yellow XABCD harmonic pattern (where B is higher than X and D) was a valid bearish CURCT. It had the invalid bullish pattern and two valid bullish patterns in play creating a valid bearish CURCT. Now that it has broken its opposite B level which is the yellow A point on this chart that price structure has completed. Now I am anticipating the yellow BCD right wing to VANISH and it then becomes a left wing on the larger blue XABC future D bearish pattern where D should complete below its B. As long as the blue D completes below its B the large Bearish RCT large yellow arrow is valid. I don't consider it a D point until a LCT candle confirms it. If price closes above the blue B level the large yellow arrow bearish RCT is no longer a valid bearish RCT price structure.
The blue bullish arrow is a lower time frame bullish RCT price structure and it is valid but it has not triggered yet. If that price structure holds and gives a HCT candle above 1.2673 it is a valid structure that should push price up to the blue D which again should finish below the blue B. If price closes below 1.2672 the lower time frame bullish RCT price structure (blue arrow) is no longer valid and I will likely miss any downside move that would most certainly follow. I have used a valid lower time frame price structure as a signal into a higher time frame trade in the opposite direction as a signal itself. The only problem it requires a very large stop. In this case if price closed below 1.2672 that would trigger a sell entry into the larger yellow arrow bearish RCT price structure.
This pair has been incredibly difficult to get my thumb on this week but I am now bearish on this pair where I think the 4H downside target level 1.2350 is now in play. This can change. If price closes above the blue B level then it changes everything. As long as that level holds I am bearish on this pair. If the blue B holds and we get a LCT candle my stop will go above the blue B level as I show on the chart.
Those are my thoughts on this pair at this point in time and if the key levels I went over hold or break you know what I think when/if those events happen. With what price is saying right now I am bearish on this pair.
