BoC hawkish. Extremely strong CAD yesterday. But still quite before FOMC
1.618 extension right now, exactly on 100 WMA.
Plan is really small pos long right now, add another long portion around support level at the bottom.
Expecting FED would be a bit more hawkish this Wed.
1.618 extension right now, exactly on 100 WMA.
Plan is really small pos long right now, add another long portion around support level at the bottom.
Expecting FED would be a bit more hawkish this Wed.
Comment:
increase position a bit
Comment:
The reason that I want to try this is.
1. CFTC wkly data (Net Pos for spec) for CAD shows -77876. Shortest time was 4/16/2013 at -88034. That's also one of the reasons that when BoC turned hawkish, the SL was extreme
2. BoC confirmed hawkish yesterday by Poloz: "“The economy is gathering momentum, and not just in certain spots but across a much wider array,”
3. The confirmation should have been digested well in the US. Might need a bit more digestion today from Asia and Europe. But overall, the major short positions in CAD should mostly have been closed out.
4. Currently at the bottom of the rising trend
5. With equity all time high but yield is still not catching up, the FED should lean to hawkish this Wed.
With all these, think this should be a bet worth a try. But still only small position.
1. CFTC wkly data (Net Pos for spec) for CAD shows -77876. Shortest time was 4/16/2013 at -88034. That's also one of the reasons that when BoC turned hawkish, the SL was extreme
2. BoC confirmed hawkish yesterday by Poloz: "“The economy is gathering momentum, and not just in certain spots but across a much wider array,”
3. The confirmation should have been digested well in the US. Might need a bit more digestion today from Asia and Europe. But overall, the major short positions in CAD should mostly have been closed out.
4. Currently at the bottom of the rising trend
5. With equity all time high but yield is still not catching up, the FED should lean to hawkish this Wed.
With all these, think this should be a bet worth a try. But still only small position.
Comment:
Still hold on to my long. Plan to increase my position.
FED hawkish last week. But the US data were not good (esp. CPI). Kashkari dissented again. Need to see what's going to happen in FEDspeaks this week.
Currently looks good to long this pair.
FED hawkish last week. But the US data were not good (esp. CPI). Kashkari dissented again. Need to see what's going to happen in FEDspeaks this week.
Currently looks good to long this pair.
Comment:
CFTC Net spec total position is still -72357 for CAD, still very short and small change from previous week. which is actually a bit surprise to me. But feel comfortable about this position.
Comment:
Moved my stop to breakeven. Risk pretty on today. USDJPY got bought, iTraxx also coming down right now.
Let's see today's inventory data
Let's see today's inventory data