We have broken trend and started the strongest dip since late October. If the bear move picks up momentum, low $30Ks or even $30K is not out of the question, especially with DXY waxing bullish. if the top is really in at $35,102, the 0.786 ($31,487) needs to hold. If we lose the whole supply zone down to $30,551, $30K will be tested. I would expect a bounce in this vicinity, back to about $31,500 before a dip below $29K. The final stand for bulls would come at $28,650. It's difficult to imagine US30 losing much more than the previous high, and sideways/upward motion should resume here, at the latest. Best guess at the lowest bottom: $29,184.
Depending on the speed of the bubble pop, the move down to this final bottom could take all summer, give or take. Once the spring pops on DXY, the move should be sharp, like it was over the past few days, but level out for a gentler, final descent. There could be a small, short-term bounce in the next week. Bull case has it bouncing no lower than the 0.786 and perhaps as high as the 0.886 before resuming upward trajectory.
Depending on the speed of the bubble pop, the move down to this final bottom could take all summer, give or take. Once the spring pops on DXY, the move should be sharp, like it was over the past few days, but level out for a gentler, final descent. There could be a small, short-term bounce in the next week. Bull case has it bouncing no lower than the 0.786 and perhaps as high as the 0.886 before resuming upward trajectory.
Comment:
Any time now, and probably next week before a correction starts. Bearish divergences appearing on the 1H.
Any time now, and probably next week before a correction starts. Bearish divergences appearing on the 1H.
Comment:
If Congress would quit making money printer go 'BRRR', I think we would have seen a real break by now. As it is, still waiting, grinding out new highs.
Comment:
This turnover is taking much longer than anticipating, but might finally be coming to pass. Another rejection around $35k will be telling.
Comment:
Correction: the above should read "anticipated*, not "anticipating."
Still in a holding pattern. The upward trend may resume when/if(?) Congress raises the debt limit, but a correction is still due.
Still in a holding pattern. The upward trend may resume when/if(?) Congress raises the debt limit, but a correction is still due.
Comment:
The day after the U.S. Congress kicked the can down the road, the spring upward began. However, we still have not reached the previous ATH ($35,630), and bearish divs are appearing on the 1H chart as we hit the 1.618 Fib. extension ($35,313).
Hard to see a hard crash prior to the next deadline (Dec. 3rd), especially after all the sideways action in the last few months, but a clear direction has not yet been made. Easier to see a new ATH pending on the 1D, with week's opening projection on the 1D chart posted here.
Though a new ATH is likely in the next few days, the trend is likely still sideways for the time being. December may be telling.
(1H)
(1D)
Hard to see a hard crash prior to the next deadline (Dec. 3rd), especially after all the sideways action in the last few months, but a clear direction has not yet been made. Easier to see a new ATH pending on the 1D, with week's opening projection on the 1D chart posted here.
Though a new ATH is likely in the next few days, the trend is likely still sideways for the time being. December may be telling.
(1H)
Comment:
Took three days, and the wicks made for a better entry/exit, but the candle bodies were spot on:
Might have done better with further Fib. extensions on lower time frames.
Might have done better with further Fib. extensions on lower time frames.
Worst case, it wicks to $35k. Setting a new high would reset my outlook to neutral until it's clearly either a double top, or a bullish continuation.
EDIT: "
upply" in original caption of 19 June should have read "demand."