End of the 40 year Bond Bull Market?

Everyone and their dog is looking for the Fed Pivot and rate cuts. I think if they do this and return to QE - they will lose the bond market. Then it won't matter for anyone on anything. This is the massive tail that I think nobody is looking for, but check the WEEKLY chart of the 10yr note.

Head & Shoulders (or their inverse) are typically formed at the end of a major trend. What I don't understand is why people think we are just doomed into a forever bond bull market...because the interest of our debt?

Global currencies are blowing up, I'm not that worried about some default on TSY - but that is all narrative and I make my living on trading charts - not farts (opinions/narratives).

FWIW - We have a giant inverse head and shoulders, and a breakout/backtest of a 40 year long trendline in the bond market on WEEKLY CHARTS. Everyone and their dog is waiting for a Powell pivot and a bond bull market to resume as nobody around has really ever known anything different. WEEKLY CHARTS are super powerful.

The monthly is even more bullish for rates/bearish for bonds....just follow the charts not the farts!

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Neckline was tested, 100dma is overhead and if this weeks economic data comes in - we might be at a true 40 year inflection point in the bond market and a return to the Vigilantes.

Waiting for the 40 year trendline to break again to return to shorting the bond market.

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Looks like we get the daily neckline breakdown This has been a long time in the making! The Measured Move on this breakdown is the 50w SMA or so ~ 2%. Bond short hedges closed, time to let the longs run $TLT

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9dma back test - needs to hold or this was just a giant Bond Bull Trap

Comment:

Ruh Roh!

This weekly candle is not good for the bond bulls.

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Return to shorting Bonds today. Everyone and their dog was looking for that weekly/daily H&S to play out - its now rejected and rates are > 40yr trendline.

10yr on the daily is bullish:

This Weekly chart is menacing.

Comment:

Bond bulls rekt - Weekly chart is killing them.

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The new bull market is in shorts. Check the Daily/Weekly on inverse stock ETFs like $SH or $PSQ - RECORD ALL TIME volume all year - this smells like smart money accumulating,

10yr also looks strong bullish on weekly

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Another bullish week for the 10yr. The weekly SMAs are uber bullish - but the REALLY worrying part is how bullish the MONTHLY SMAs have turned.

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FOMC is in 4 days - should give us a clearer view.

The SMAs on the weekly chart are all in a full blow bull market configuration.

The Monthly is what has me worried, this is the first time in HISTORY that the 10yr has broken above, back tested, and bounced above the 200 month SMA.

Higher rates is the singular trade NOBODY is positioned for (except those of us that are shorting bonds). Macro wise it will crush the stock markets, but it will be great for savers and help purge the zombie companies out of the system.

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40yr bond bull is dead. Everyone and their dog has a narrative but they aren't following the chart. The 10yr broke out above the 200month SMA for the first time ever, back tested it, and is going up. This has to mean SOMETHING.

Everyone will ascribe some narrative to this - end of the day its pure clean TA

Upshot: This will crash everything and bring prices and inflation down - and savers get rewarded. IF the Fed pivots prior to bringing down inflation, the Bond market will divorce the Fed and go Limit Down.

Comment:

I just randomly drew trendlines based on consolidation/pivot zones. What's funny is that the 1st target was tagged this week. Monthly is super over extended - a pull back is needed - but the daily/weekly/monthly 10yr charts are a full blown bull market.

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Got the Weekly close over the 1st pink resistance line @ 4%.

DXY and the 10yr are in full blown daily bull markets despite how vertical this move is. We are starting to see some really concerning cracks in the system in 1st world countries in both their currencies and bond markets. Japan has basically lost control of the Yen as it tries to YCC its yield Curve.... and now the UK looks to be headed in the same direction.

Looks like we are living through the return of the bond vigilantes - and this is bad for bailout junkies. Any money printing will be immediately met with bonds and currency selling off. Most of DXYs strength comes from the total collapse of the other relative currencies. Central Banks, for the first time in 20 years, are now being bullied by the bond market - and its something most investors alive today have never had to contend with.


IF/WHEN the Fed pivots and starts cutting rates, it will be due to a collapsing financial system and rates will moon. None of this is bullish for equities.


Is 5.3% next?

Comment:

Consolidation time. We took out the first pink level. The measured move and next resistance/consolidation zone is ~ 5.3% on the 10yr.

And we all know that the Fed Funds rate just chases the 2yr - which took out the 2008 levels today. We're basically back to 2000 levels

And 2/s10s have never been this inverted.

The crash will be biblical in scale, bulltard bailout junkies will continue to stand in disbelief and get sacrificed.

Trade closed: target reached:

Taking 60% off here. Not sure where we go from here but were breaking down on weeklies.

Comment:

Was this the double top in rates?

Time will tell...