The VIX has been rolling down most of 2013 since the last fear in 2011. But in my opinion the VIX has gone down too much too fast and as bullish sentiment has almost taken over in most of 2013 leading into 2014. What this signals to me is that the market might have becoming flat and complacent too much too fast and did not have time to properly consolidate and price in various factors at play, such as emerging market risk, and U.S. specific risks. Lastly VIX futures and TVIX have been even more flat and complacent rolling down considerably this past year.
Prediction: I dont expect volatility to be rampant all of 2014, but definitely see it being an issue till at least Q2 as investors scramble to properly price in risk and fears of us government debt and other issues, which briefly affected volatility back when fear of government default happened in October. come back and become real questions.This combined with investors profit taking from their long term investments should increase market volatility.
In short form: Market volatility got complacent too much too fast due too amazing consistent returns that have not given investors enough time to consolidate price changes and price in risk. as such these 2 day wake-up should have investors scrambling to price in risk and settle on a "fair" price. During this process I expect to see increased market volatility
Just noticed that this etf has been split many many times. Regardless I still expect to see this appreciate over the coming 2-3 weeks.
Prediction: I dont expect volatility to be rampant all of 2014, but definitely see it being an issue till at least Q2 as investors scramble to properly price in risk and fears of us government debt and other issues, which briefly affected volatility back when fear of government default happened in October. come back and become real questions.This combined with investors profit taking from their long term investments should increase market volatility.
In short form: Market volatility got complacent too much too fast due too amazing consistent returns that have not given investors enough time to consolidate price changes and price in risk. as such these 2 day wake-up should have investors scrambling to price in risk and settle on a "fair" price. During this process I expect to see increased market volatility
Just noticed that this etf has been split many many times. Regardless I still expect to see this appreciate over the coming 2-3 weeks.