TLRY Falling Wedge Breakout

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, so buy at your own risk.

I am a shareholder of TLRY for the first time as of a few days ago. I watched this stock IPO and blast off from $30 to over $300 and then quickly melt down just as fast. But now it rests on significant support at around $38.90 based on my technical analysis and I see it slightly broke out of the falling wedge too. I like to hear the opinions of others, regardless of if you agree or disagree. I would like to find more evidence to support or disprove my thesis here.

Entry: $39 to $40 range
Stop Loss: $35 (or maybe a bit lower so you are inside the channel?)
Target: Who knows. Set a trailing stop loss and watch what happens.

Comment:

We have seen fantastic gains so far from my entry price. I could see TLRY retesting its $300 blowoff top in the coming years. Anyone who followed this post and got in at around $40 should not sell this stock, however consider a stop loss around $38. If we break that level, then that chips away at the bull case.

I will note that I am overall slightly bearish on the overall global stock market right now, but I do strongly believe that this oversold stock can break the trend. This is a longer term trade.

Trade active:

Raised my stop loss to $38.00

Trade active:

TLRY is sitting right under/on the 50 day moving average right now. It needs to put the 50 DMA in the rear view mirror for the upward reversal to continue. We will see. The 50 DMA was support until Friday 7/12 when it broke below. Now it is resistance...

Trade closed: stop reached:

The stop was hit a few days ago so this trade is now closed. I am still holding a half position as I do see strong prospects for the future and also see the $30 level as strong support, but I would not bet the farm on this turning around soon. Overall market divergences in a bearish posture call for realistic expectations over the next few years. When TLRY breaks out though it's going to run.