Big Bull Run, 30+ short term, 50+ long term
30 within month
50+ within year
Takeda has made significant moves in the development of it's global pipeline. From the MASSIVE moves with various COVID vaccine manufacturers, to acquiring smaller Immunology biotech startups, and increase in Boston research sphere. I am the most bullish on Takeda purely from a fundamental standpoint.
Institutional ownership is low compared to other pharma's (AZN ~15%, Pfizer 66%), which would be extremely worrying, except I view it as less big movers to the stock, more tiny movers, which can make volatility rather high, but if this recent consumer-approach of holding longer on to a stock, then I take this over the risk of BoA deciding it isn't worth it to them anymore. Furthermore, ARK has >20million shares, and we can all agree that Cathie Wood is a genius.
They just brought on their first non-Japanese CEO, who has publicly announced a more global-centric development platform. This isn't a sudden change in Takeda, this is the culmination of that shift. They have been stepping more and more into the Boston science sphere, with more and more of that to be expected as they continue to build up their Boston staff.
As of the time of writing, TAK sits at 18.86 with a 42 cent change in share price with todays announcement of very positive phase 3 clinical trial news, and J&J COVID vaccine manufacturing deal. I expect very big gains very soon, as investors find more and more news at EOD research cycle, followed by the pump and dump crew hopping on. As new analyst outlooks come out, I expect a $50+ evaluation, possibly mimicking recent biotech movements of 100% very quickly.
This is my first published idea, I would love feedback! If you want to see any additions, such as the pipeline and disease relevance data, I can definitely add that for Takeda. I plan to continue publishing in smaller biotech's, as I am just starting to get into investing my own money, and my scientific background, namely in the Boston-biotech sphere.
This is in no way financial advise, and as I am new to price predictions, I am following very very basic rules, but I will refine and develop my personal algorithm for price evaluations due to real market fundamentals such as drug market valuations, etc.
Thank you for your time, and please remember, I am not a financial advisor, this is my personal biased view on this company's stock valuation, please do your own due diligence so you are making decisions based on your own knowledge and beliefs!
Comment:
EDIT: I just remembered they bought Shire a bit ago. That makes me even more bullish. Shire was one of the original 3 to start on the mRNA platform (moderna - azn - shire, Biontech technically was the very first and thus owns most of the patents, but was ignored). Shire failed... miserably. Their program was ambitious, they slammed as much momentum into it, and came up short as they didn't have the scientific background to tackle the problem, are realize that delivery is and will be the slayer of all drug development. But what they did build, was a framework for someone better to come along and use it. I wouldn't be surprised if Takeda makes aggressive moves to firm up its mRNA production facility, as no company now can handle production for this current wave of COVID vaccine, let alone the following boosters. And moderna wants to step into their own field, vaccines were a quick stop along the way to make a buck to fund the impactful research and true potential of mRNA therapeutics, so them giving up manufacturing rights is more than just a maybe.
Comment:
March 25th, 2021: Takeda announces submission for selling their Dengue Vaccine that could very well wipe out one of the worst up and coming global threats in the world.
Crickets chirping
Owls hooting
Silence
The theatre dead
An audience killed
What the actual &#@$ is wrong with the world when the announcement of final submission of a multi-dose multi-nation massive epidemic that has the threat of spreading to the rest of the world, especially as mosquitoes capable of carrying the dengue virus have been found to have invaded into the US, doesn't do shit for your price?
I outwardly put Takeda long because of their current pipeline, global drive, dynamic acquisitions and program revamps, but in my heart I put them long as a scientist. I long for the day when I can do business with Takeda, not just because that will mean I have made it in the biotech big boy world, but because they really are a company of scientists. I had the honour of attending a lecture by the one and only Dr. Shinya Yamanaka (the guy truly is mad chill, took selfies with everyone, it was a cool deal, I wanted a selfie but I was too shy) a year ago, right before COVID, and he talked very highly of Takeda. In Japan the government has sponsored a program to develop a universal pluripotent stem cell line for the major groups in Japan, such that every citizen of Japan would have access to pluripotent stem cells for life saving therapies. Yamanaka was talking up the whole thing, and went into how Takeda was a really big part of it, and how they were spreading out to Boston and to look them up sometime. Maybe I just got fucking swindled and now I am selling the same shit I bought into, but I don't think I could come to that conclusion. I think of Takeda as a broken communist would think of as best it could get. Public science fucking failed, academic institutions have become breeding ground of stale useless droll. Maybe Takeda is as good as it gets for science. Maybe we all have techno samurai blades and speak in Japanese in 200 years. I don't know the answer to those questions.
Just like I don't know what the fuck is happening with the market and what is happening with Takeda's price.
But I do know that whenever whatever the wutever this is that is going on in the market is over, Takeda is going to go up with all of this positive momentum building. Good news is always worth its dime, but never in your time.
Crickets chirping
Owls hooting
Silence
The theatre dead
An audience killed
What the actual &#@$ is wrong with the world when the announcement of final submission of a multi-dose multi-nation massive epidemic that has the threat of spreading to the rest of the world, especially as mosquitoes capable of carrying the dengue virus have been found to have invaded into the US, doesn't do shit for your price?
I outwardly put Takeda long because of their current pipeline, global drive, dynamic acquisitions and program revamps, but in my heart I put them long as a scientist. I long for the day when I can do business with Takeda, not just because that will mean I have made it in the biotech big boy world, but because they really are a company of scientists. I had the honour of attending a lecture by the one and only Dr. Shinya Yamanaka (the guy truly is mad chill, took selfies with everyone, it was a cool deal, I wanted a selfie but I was too shy) a year ago, right before COVID, and he talked very highly of Takeda. In Japan the government has sponsored a program to develop a universal pluripotent stem cell line for the major groups in Japan, such that every citizen of Japan would have access to pluripotent stem cells for life saving therapies. Yamanaka was talking up the whole thing, and went into how Takeda was a really big part of it, and how they were spreading out to Boston and to look them up sometime. Maybe I just got fucking swindled and now I am selling the same shit I bought into, but I don't think I could come to that conclusion. I think of Takeda as a broken communist would think of as best it could get. Public science fucking failed, academic institutions have become breeding ground of stale useless droll. Maybe Takeda is as good as it gets for science. Maybe we all have techno samurai blades and speak in Japanese in 200 years. I don't know the answer to those questions.
Just like I don't know what the fuck is happening with the market and what is happening with Takeda's price.
But I do know that whenever whatever the wutever this is that is going on in the market is over, Takeda is going to go up with all of this positive momentum building. Good news is always worth its dime, but never in your time.
Comment:
4/7/2021:
For those worried, don't be. They have a ton of catalysts as fuel, just had a presentation on pipeline, expect magic eventually. I have tracked the price change, it does look like someone has been shorting the stock significantly over the past couple of weeks, but it kind of also looks like a major industry investor is coming in the way they have the bid/ask walls set up, it allows for massive volume without radical changes in price, allowing them to buy more for less. My guess is that this sort of thing is tied to synthetic shares as well, bump up the "liquidity" of shares so that you can buy a bunch, eventually the liquidity will dry up with your position gaining dramatically.
For those worried, don't be. They have a ton of catalysts as fuel, just had a presentation on pipeline, expect magic eventually. I have tracked the price change, it does look like someone has been shorting the stock significantly over the past couple of weeks, but it kind of also looks like a major industry investor is coming in the way they have the bid/ask walls set up, it allows for massive volume without radical changes in price, allowing them to buy more for less. My guess is that this sort of thing is tied to synthetic shares as well, bump up the "liquidity" of shares so that you can buy a bunch, eventually the liquidity will dry up with your position gaining dramatically.