There will be a brief retracement for the SPY. The retracement will probably hit 0.618 before Oct. 2. The price point and the date is due to the momentum of the downtrend not being very strong. After this retracement, the SPY will continue to go lower.
Trade closed manually
Comment:
The retracement will happen but a little bit later than I anticipated. Therefore, I have closed the trade I will redraw the chart when I anticipate another retracement.
Comment:
The upward retracement started this week. I was just one or two days off. I think this will only be a brief retracement as the movement is generally moving downward. The retracement will hit one of the Fibonacci levels. I think I read that 61.8 is hit quite a lot. I need to do more research on this. I will have to redraw this chart as I didn't get the actual low to calcule the fibinocci levels accurately. I will do that later tonite.
Comment:
Here is the redrawn chart with the actual low, so we can get a more precise target. I anticipate the SPY will hit the peak around Oct. 13 to Oct 16th. I marked the target with a black vertical line crossing the 61.8% retracement.
Comment:
I will update this post with the indicators that led me to my above prediction in a day or two.
Comment:
The reason I suspect the Market will hit the top of this wave by Oct. 13 to Oct. 16th is that some up and down patterns in the market history show consistent timing such as the period from Apr 2,2018 to June 30, 2018 (more dramatic/consistent pattern shown on the DOW charts). So I suspect it will take about 15 days to hit the top of this move before moving down. And it will continue this up and down pattern for the next few months until the end of Dec or Jan.
So an upward movement from about the 27th of the month until the 15th of the next month and then a downward movement from approx the 15th until the 27th of the month.
Here is the full drop of the next few months.
So an upward movement from about the 27th of the month until the 15th of the next month and then a downward movement from approx the 15th until the 27th of the month.
Here is the full drop of the next few months.
Comment:
The market went sideways for the last few days. But it started to go up after 3 pm EST and this was also supported by some indicators. I suspect it will go up tomorrow as well.
Comment:
The SPY may not go as high as 61.8% It may only have a 50% retracement or hit the 38% retracement. I am just basing my prediction on what I have seen in the past.
Trade closed manually:
The indicators have changed and it looks like it is heading lower for a little while. I think I will close the trade for now.