Manchin killed the administrations agenda. There will be a rampage of economic killing moves over the next 6 months to bring economic panic to the table. The goal will be to bring SP500 below 4,000 in order to justify another round of economic stimulus bills passing congress. Attached to these bills will be the agenda items that were in the Build Back Better plan that Manchin just shot down. In order to fund the stimulus, the Federal Reserve will have to again embark on another round of easing to maintain interest rates while the government expands debt to pay for the stimulus. Midterms in 2022 will ensure all politicians will have adequate motivation to pass any increased stimulus bills regardless of whatever is attached to them.
Inflation is already close to 10% without using the official suppressed metrics, this will double to 20% in response to next years easing, the politicians will be deflect blame for the inflation crisis and will paint it as a evil corporations price gouging. They will move swiftly to issue price controls. As the price controls work their way through the system, corporations will not be able to maintain production profitably while being pressured from inflation and price controls. Production capacity will be destroyed either by companies going out of business or being nationalized, this will result in widespead shortages never seen before in Modern US history. This will lead us into the 2024 presidential election, civil unrest will begin. As the current adminstration will be at record low approval, another questionable election result seeing them maintain power will unleash chaos throughout the country into 2025.
Hold onto your pants.
Inflation is already close to 10% without using the official suppressed metrics, this will double to 20% in response to next years easing, the politicians will be deflect blame for the inflation crisis and will paint it as a evil corporations price gouging. They will move swiftly to issue price controls. As the price controls work their way through the system, corporations will not be able to maintain production profitably while being pressured from inflation and price controls. Production capacity will be destroyed either by companies going out of business or being nationalized, this will result in widespead shortages never seen before in Modern US history. This will lead us into the 2024 presidential election, civil unrest will begin. As the current adminstration will be at record low approval, another questionable election result seeing them maintain power will unleash chaos throughout the country into 2025.
Hold onto your pants.
Trade active:
Official Inflation Data out over the last two days.
"Official" CPI Numbers released yesterday show 7% inflation, which is the highest in 40 years.
The producer inflation data released today shows over 9%, which is the highest on record for this data series.
This is going to support the Federal Reserve winding down their balance sheet and raising rates. This will send the market lower and create the backdrop for corporate media to begin beating the drum of more stimulus.
This inflation data supports the timeline for Phase 1 and 2 occurring as described. Get Ready Folks.
"Official" CPI Numbers released yesterday show 7% inflation, which is the highest in 40 years.
The producer inflation data released today shows over 9%, which is the highest on record for this data series.
This is going to support the Federal Reserve winding down their balance sheet and raising rates. This will send the market lower and create the backdrop for corporate media to begin beating the drum of more stimulus.
This inflation data supports the timeline for Phase 1 and 2 occurring as described. Get Ready Folks.
Trade active:
The powers at be have found their crisis. Ukraine and Russia account for 30% of global wheat supply amongst many other commodities (energy). Agricultural commodities are about to go parabolic as the energy crunch sends this into a feedback loop.
The feds now are going to be stuck with an economy that will be shocked by a supply side inflation surge. Raising interest rates will not help a supply side inflation shock, it will absolutely crater the stock markets. Expect to see feds unabable to get rates above 1.5% before the next easing cycle.
Stage 1 of the SP500 falling below 4000 is all but assured now before July, likely significantly lower. Inflation hitting 20% for stage 2 is now EXTREMELY LIKELY. Food and energy costs and going to go ballistic. We are staring down the barrel of price controls and maybe even some form of government directed rationing for wheat in the coming months.
Expect to see some crazy SH!#& in the next two years. This is getting real.
The feds now are going to be stuck with an economy that will be shocked by a supply side inflation surge. Raising interest rates will not help a supply side inflation shock, it will absolutely crater the stock markets. Expect to see feds unabable to get rates above 1.5% before the next easing cycle.
Stage 1 of the SP500 falling below 4000 is all but assured now before July, likely significantly lower. Inflation hitting 20% for stage 2 is now EXTREMELY LIKELY. Food and energy costs and going to go ballistic. We are staring down the barrel of price controls and maybe even some form of government directed rationing for wheat in the coming months.
Expect to see some crazy SH!#& in the next two years. This is getting real.
Trade active:
The feds have come out this week with comments that are aggressive. They seem to be actually gearing up for a much more aggressive rate hiking cycle and run off of their balance sheet than the market was hoping for. This is occurring within the context of Chinese economy getting hammered by more rounds of lockdowns AND chaos in the commodity market caused by Russia/Ukraine.
S&P closing below 4000 by July is still looking likely now to hit the first Phase. Crashing the economy by raising rates is not going to slow inflation, we are looking at extreme food inflation occurring this fall - which will likely coincide with a strong political push for more stimulus after the feds crash the market this summer.
Nothing about this situation is looking good.
S&P closing below 4000 by July is still looking likely now to hit the first Phase. Crashing the economy by raising rates is not going to slow inflation, we are looking at extreme food inflation occurring this fall - which will likely coincide with a strong political push for more stimulus after the feds crash the market this summer.
Nothing about this situation is looking good.
Comment:
Phase 1 Complete - SP500 sold off below 4000 today to somewhere around 3970 before July. Expect more selling pressure as the countdown has now started to an acute event risk that "breaks" something . Whatever this event will be will be latched onto by the corporate media and plastered as headlines 24/7 for a week to focus the attention of the masses in order to prepare sentiment for the next round of stimulus by fall.
Remember.... The stimulus will be passed by congress, the goal of the stimulus will be to attach the Build Back Better agenda items and other radical political agenda items of the leftists to the stimulus as a stealth move.
The interest rates on the 10 Year treasuries will likely by shooting upwards to 5% while stimulus talks are ongoing which will force the feds to turn on the money printing to buy more bonds. Which sets up Phase 3 and the 20% inflation that will be following.
Remember.... The stimulus will be passed by congress, the goal of the stimulus will be to attach the Build Back Better agenda items and other radical political agenda items of the leftists to the stimulus as a stealth move.
The interest rates on the 10 Year treasuries will likely by shooting upwards to 5% while stimulus talks are ongoing which will force the feds to turn on the money printing to buy more bonds. Which sets up Phase 3 and the 20% inflation that will be following.
Comment:
Get Ready for Phase 2.... Next steps will be the Q2 GDP release at end of month which probably confirms a recession followed by a negative NFP release in August. That will likely put a halt to the Feds rate hikes, and set the stage for the next round of easing and stimulus.
It is all going to plan.
It is all going to plan.
Comment:
The FOMC just said todays interest rate hike now brings interest rates to "Neutral" LOL!!!! These idiots think that interest rates 7% BELOW inflation is now "neutral". This is setting the stage for the feds to put further rate hikes on pause as coming data begins to deteriorate.
Remember, we are in Phase 2 - the feds will revert to easing by end of year. This move today is setting this up.
Remember, we are in Phase 2 - the feds will revert to easing by end of year. This move today is setting this up.
Comment:
the Second negative quarterly GDP release in a row was made today. We are now in a recession. Next up is a negative NFP report and we will be headed directly to more easing and stimulus by end of year.
Something is going to break over the summer. Step 1 of this thesis is now all but assured, SP500 will break 4000 by July. The recession while the Feds hike will cause a crisis that will see a severe downturn in the economy which the low functioning politicians will leverage to push for more stimulus ahead of the mid term elections this fall.
Gold is coming under pressure due to the short term perspective on rising interest rates, the selling should reverse as it becomes clear that this is becoming a structural crisis with the US and that the direction that the powers that be will take will be currency destruction.
We are running out of time.