The early November low established a daily uptrending channel on SPY. In addition, the daily 100MA (aka 20wk MA) is still trending up, indicating a bullish intermediate-term trend. The 100MA bands (set to 5%) usually mark a near ceiling for price movement to the upside (in calm markets, not bear markets). Use caution with 5% settings on the downside because selling can be much more volatile and can overthrow the lower band by several percent. Both upper channel resistance and the upper 5% band coincide around $228. I expect those levels to be tested before this uptrend ends. (I know SPY is WELL on its way already, but this is my first chart post and just wanted to see how it works, thanks). : )
Comment:
This may be all we get for further upside this year. The hourly trend is still intact, but showing resistance at the 5% bands. Ideally, I would like one solid test of the uptrend channel high. Definitely a place here to close out some longs or hedge. There's only a week until christmas vacation and the volumes are going to dry up. It's not likely that we get selling into low volume.
Trade closed manually:
Looks like the S&P500 is pretty much done here. The small potential for upside is not worth the risk of a pullback or correction. CLOSED.