An inverse correlation to the energy sector seems to proceed every market downturn. Additionally, does it not disturb anyone that American Economy has been doing relatively OK over the last 2 years while the global economy is stagnating? Resistance is being strongly tested at the 161.68% retrace from the 2008 low.
My Thesis
I believe low commodity prices will put pressures on emerging markets, and capital will continue to flow out of foreign markets. Rising rates will strengthen the dollar to critical levels which will put pressure on governments in emerging markets who borrowed in USD. As they default, this will begin to pull down the foreign equities. As a result, investments may continue to flow into the American market. This could also cause an overshoot of my resistance level.
Why will a strong US Dollar will crash the market?
Very Simple. Energy prices are low right now, and billions were borrowed in order to extract oil. As the dollar strengthens, global economies may weaken, and this may make it harder for these oil companies to find buyers. (less business being conducted equals lesser need for oil). This will in turn will lower demand for oil pushing the price down further (A spiral if you will). These defaults will lead to ripples in the economy which could result in massive layoffs and other social unrest. As Assets sell off, this could lead to economic deflation, thus a recession is born!
How bad will the market sell off be?
Besides energy, other areas of the economy seem fine for now. I think the S&P selling off to 1550 points in 2016 is very reasonable.
My Thesis
I believe low commodity prices will put pressures on emerging markets, and capital will continue to flow out of foreign markets. Rising rates will strengthen the dollar to critical levels which will put pressure on governments in emerging markets who borrowed in USD. As they default, this will begin to pull down the foreign equities. As a result, investments may continue to flow into the American market. This could also cause an overshoot of my resistance level.
Why will a strong US Dollar will crash the market?
Very Simple. Energy prices are low right now, and billions were borrowed in order to extract oil. As the dollar strengthens, global economies may weaken, and this may make it harder for these oil companies to find buyers. (less business being conducted equals lesser need for oil). This will in turn will lower demand for oil pushing the price down further (A spiral if you will). These defaults will lead to ripples in the economy which could result in massive layoffs and other social unrest. As Assets sell off, this could lead to economic deflation, thus a recession is born!
How bad will the market sell off be?
Besides energy, other areas of the economy seem fine for now. I think the S&P selling off to 1550 points in 2016 is very reasonable.