$SPY $SPX completing cycle (V)? Too much FUD??
(WIll provide updates)
Can also refer to my TA of NASDAQ (NDX) at this link:
Im favoring the current move down as a wave 4 of wave (3), with wave 5 projected to make new ATH to complete wave (3), following a massive pullback in wave (4) prior to starting another set of 5 waves to complete wave (5) and cycle V before the grand finale to commence the highly anticipated, glorified and long awaited "The Everything Bubble" market crash.
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If you analyze the dot com bubble, there were multiple new ATH's and major dumps before it finally started crashing, and if we analyze the ATH's leading up to covid-crash, we can see many similarities in the wave structures along with various indicators like RSI and trendlines.
What I'm proposing in terms of TA using EW, is that we are VERY close to that top (perhaps I will be wrong and it has already begun or perhaps it will never happen or perhaps it will happen years from now, time will tell. Safest bet is to manage risk and secure profits along the way).
1 pov I have is that we are ending the cycle of 5 waves up off the lows of 2009's bottom, which was the very start of a brand new cycle that has lasted nearly 14 straight years now. Sooner, or later, markets will mimick that style of "dot-com bubble" washout or "the great crash" of 1929. Just theory and speculation of course, Not Financial Advise, always DYOR and practice risk management before making any investment choices.
Can also refer to my TA of NASDAQ (NDX) at this link:
Im favoring the current move down as a wave 4 of wave (3), with wave 5 projected to make new ATH to complete wave (3), following a massive pullback in wave (4) prior to starting another set of 5 waves to complete wave (5) and cycle V before the grand finale to commence the highly anticipated, glorified and long awaited "The Everything Bubble" market crash.
0
If you analyze the dot com bubble, there were multiple new ATH's and major dumps before it finally started crashing, and if we analyze the ATH's leading up to covid-crash, we can see many similarities in the wave structures along with various indicators like RSI and trendlines.
What I'm proposing in terms of TA using EW, is that we are VERY close to that top (perhaps I will be wrong and it has already begun or perhaps it will never happen or perhaps it will happen years from now, time will tell. Safest bet is to manage risk and secure profits along the way).
1 pov I have is that we are ending the cycle of 5 waves up off the lows of 2009's bottom, which was the very start of a brand new cycle that has lasted nearly 14 straight years now. Sooner, or later, markets will mimick that style of "dot-com bubble" washout or "the great crash" of 1929. Just theory and speculation of course, Not Financial Advise, always DYOR and practice risk management before making any investment choices.
Comment:
Comment:
wave 4 pullback ('bear market")
I had many diff counts and projections, this is the count that makes most sense to me atm, it respects the EW rules and calculations.
Untill markets show us differently or prove it wrong, I will stick to this for now and adjust it as needed.
I had many diff counts and projections, this is the count that makes most sense to me atm, it respects the EW rules and calculations.
Untill markets show us differently or prove it wrong, I will stick to this for now and adjust it as needed.
Comment:
"the Bull run"
after covid crash
after covid crash
Comment:
pre covid crash chop
(I believe we may be in similar scenario of few crashes and new ATH's before any major massive crash)
(I believe we may be in similar scenario of few crashes and new ATH's before any major massive crash)
Comment:
potential wave structure that market can replicate
(I disagree with it, and oppose it, but Im being bias about it).
Its just a pov to consider, just like the ones above.
(I disagree with it, and oppose it, but Im being bias about it).
Its just a pov to consider, just like the ones above.
Comment:
another POV related to view right above this
Comment:
Cyclical view of the SPY historical chart
We MUST presume, the 2008/2009 bottom was the end of a cycle.
Covid crash was the lowest point in the RSI after the 2009 bottom
This replicates (comparably), the masive pullback in 1998 prior to the very top of the dot com bubble
The correlation and similarities are too noticeable (and important) to simply ignore
We MUST presume, the 2008/2009 bottom was the end of a cycle.
This replicates (comparably), the masive pullback in 1998 prior to the very top of the dot com bubble
Comment:
a POV to consider
current move off low may be incomplete and can replicate move down of wave 2
also got some unfilled gaps
this may be tricky to trade or buy, so practice risk management and take profit strategies
current move off low may be incomplete and can replicate move down of wave 2
also got some unfilled gaps
this may be tricky to trade or buy, so practice risk management and take profit strategies
Comment:
made the right decision to favor further downside on previous bounce as incomplete.
It can easily bounce right back but not seeing any bullish signs to favor it here.
Gunna stick to my gunz here and watch closely next week to end the move down.
That last bounce up, majority of large cappers did NOT bounce well either but noticed many micro caps made big moves; which told me that smart money is pumping to small caps before they dump it and buy up the next move down.
Just my thoughts
It can easily bounce right back but not seeing any bullish signs to favor it here.
Gunna stick to my gunz here and watch closely next week to end the move down.
That last bounce up, majority of large cappers did NOT bounce well either but noticed many micro caps made big moves; which told me that smart money is pumping to small caps before they dump it and buy up the next move down.
Just my thoughts