SPY long term observation.... maybe we don't get bullish until 2031-ish? - Hard to argue against the counts on this chart and if the (3) is truly in then the (4) should be of similar size and duration as the (2) - so I drew the (2) in yellow and overlaid it against the potential top for (3), also added in some simplistic channels and highlighted a very low volume area for SPY (in yellow). Box in green is the measured retracement for the (3) - ideally wave (4)s retrace into the .382/.5 of wave (3)s but as long as it doesn't hit that red region highlighted at the top of (1), this count is valid, so far this potential retracement takes it into the golden zone which is a preferred place for longs. White path is based on current PA and also tried to estimate the rest based on the yellow path/wave (2). I wouldn't be surprised if this current correction is only the (a) wave down of a much larger correction. White line is 1:1 measured move of the potential wave (a)=(c) down. Techs agree with this count. If this does play out, it will reck retail and many others as retail will sell near the (a) lows, buy near the (b) highs and lose just about everything in the (c) down - savvy investors will likely only have two chances to protect their nest egg, one of those times being NOW and the next time being at that (b) wave high - which is about 5 years from now - If this does play out, I'm willing to bet most investors can't stomach this ride over the next 5 years and will likely damage their accounts through this correction/consolidation - and those that are still solvent will likely think the bottom is already in at that (b) wave high, and they will sadly watch their nest egg diminish to almost nothing during that (c) wave down, leaving virtually nothing for their heirs who probably have lost just about everything trying to trade this wave (4) - remember wave (4)s are the hardest to trade and many give back all their gains from the easy wave (3) money because of emotions. GLTA!
Comment:
active link above - this link also points out the back testing of the breakouts from each wave. Very informative. GLTA!