Will be very interesting to see how we trade here in the next 25-30 minutes. Using Supply/Demand trendlines as shown in chart, I am seeing Supply = Demand at ~ 7:25AM 7/12/2022 (EST) @ the price level 3826.71.
This is right where we are now. A further analysis using Calculus gives me a bullish conditional expectation from here.
If Price gets back above 3683 this morning (after the point in time where demand becomes greater than supply (so after ~7:25AM), then it will activate markup of this accumulation phase. The 3683 I have obtained from 2 separate methods, the one relevant to the Supply/Demand in chart is as follows:
Find the AUC of Supply/Demand (a hyperbolic expression) by integrating over the time interval from beginning of supply trendline to point of equilibrium (= 30.97 trading days), then add to X_e to obtain the markup level. When this is broken before time of equilibrium it can result in a short squeeze if price gets far enough away, but we ran into resistance this week so had to backup/retest for support and will now re-attempt. Green dashed line is illustrative path if squeeze unfolds (still can), green path is expected path if there is no squeeze.
Black path illustrative of what could happen if it gets trapped back in between the S, D trendlines
Red path is breakdown.
These are not precise, just wanted to illustrate the most likely scenarios that can unfold from here and alert that we are at a critical point in price and time... right now.
StochRSI and MFI both point toward breakout, other math not included points toward bullish from here. A bullish catalyst would do the trick, but might just occur on its own based on Gann Time Cycle (not included).
Bet.
This is right where we are now. A further analysis using Calculus gives me a bullish conditional expectation from here.
If Price gets back above 3683 this morning (after the point in time where demand becomes greater than supply (so after ~7:25AM), then it will activate markup of this accumulation phase. The 3683 I have obtained from 2 separate methods, the one relevant to the Supply/Demand in chart is as follows:
Find the AUC of Supply/Demand (a hyperbolic expression) by integrating over the time interval from beginning of supply trendline to point of equilibrium (= 30.97 trading days), then add to X_e to obtain the markup level. When this is broken before time of equilibrium it can result in a short squeeze if price gets far enough away, but we ran into resistance this week so had to backup/retest for support and will now re-attempt. Green dashed line is illustrative path if squeeze unfolds (still can), green path is expected path if there is no squeeze.
Black path illustrative of what could happen if it gets trapped back in between the S, D trendlines
Red path is breakdown.
These are not precise, just wanted to illustrate the most likely scenarios that can unfold from here and alert that we are at a critical point in price and time... right now.
StochRSI and MFI both point toward breakout, other math not included points toward bullish from here. A bullish catalyst would do the trick, but might just occur on its own based on Gann Time Cycle (not included).
Bet.
