SPX 500 - the WXY chronicles

So we got the sell off last night after the false pennant breakout, ok good so far.

I'm still considering this a WXY correction, probably into next week, but it could be wrong. If I'm wrong, we'll keep heading lower towards the 200 ma on the weekly chart (right now it's at the 3500 area). The circled area would be strong resistance on the upside and needs to be taken out with an hourly candle close.

At this point, a further meltdown beyond most expectations is totally possible to finally break this market and have the Vix get over 40, so be careful with longs.

Oil target is 100, if it gets there today, that's an area to watch the equities reaction as well.

Comment:

SPY at open will be close to the X wave target. Still looks like it wants to come up and test that channel breakdown, open may be a bear trap if this is correct.

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maybe a bull trap at open, they are ramping it up pre mrkt

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watch for reversal around circle target area

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target area reached, reversal here would probably prove wxy pattern formation

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Up to test resistance area, if they take it out it's bullish, but I still think this is an intense bull trap, added shorts

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spy short stops likely hit, mine is at 378, looks terrible for bears

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still may come down but honestly I'm confused by how impulsive it is, so I'll just keep my shorts on with a stop so I don't go broke. Not a great day for me, let's see how it closes. There's always tomorrow.

Comment:

Powell commentary seems to be affecting the market

www.cnbc.com/live-audio/

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the market is eerily quiet. It is possible we've completed a C wave today, I'm not sure.

Comment:

they say "don't short a creeping market" - but in bear markets - "don't long a creeping market?"