Background:
I'm still net long on SOL from the summer cost basis in the mid $30s. I'm looking at targets to offload the rest into stables in case the HTF downtrend stays in play. Willing to buy back higher and pay for confirmation of HTF trend reversal. SOL had a wick into D3 demand zone from Aug'21 and has since reclaimed the macro Fib golden pocket on LTF. Spot volumes on Binance have picked up to levels not seen since Oct.'21 in the $85-100 range suggesting a floor being built. RSI on LTF are currently overbought at levels which have lately been unsustainable. There is an H3 supply just above but the volume profile is thin so I don't suspect it to be strong resistance. ADX has confirmed the strength of this LTF uptrend
Strategy:
Spot bags-
1. If SOL retests the golden pocket before the H3 supply, offload spot in equal amounts at all 4 targets
2. If SOL shoots straight to H3 supply without retest of golden pocket, offload half of spot at first target and the rest in equal amounts at the next 3 targets
3. Price nukes > HODL
Additional scenarios-
1. A clean retest of either the LTF flipped support at $101.64 or the top of the golden pocket, I will add to my long position for a short swing trade with stops below the HL and target at the top of H3 supply
2. If price falls back into the golden pocket but finds support along the diagonal trendline I will still add to my long position on a reclaim and retest of the same zone with the same target and stops
Invalidations:
1. Dropping back into the D3 demand would make this look more like a range than an uptrend, I'll scrap this and look to play the range
2. Given the 2nd additional scenario, a rejection off a LH and I will move stops to BE
I'm still net long on SOL from the summer cost basis in the mid $30s. I'm looking at targets to offload the rest into stables in case the HTF downtrend stays in play. Willing to buy back higher and pay for confirmation of HTF trend reversal. SOL had a wick into D3 demand zone from Aug'21 and has since reclaimed the macro Fib golden pocket on LTF. Spot volumes on Binance have picked up to levels not seen since Oct.'21 in the $85-100 range suggesting a floor being built. RSI on LTF are currently overbought at levels which have lately been unsustainable. There is an H3 supply just above but the volume profile is thin so I don't suspect it to be strong resistance. ADX has confirmed the strength of this LTF uptrend
Strategy:
Spot bags-
1. If SOL retests the golden pocket before the H3 supply, offload spot in equal amounts at all 4 targets
2. If SOL shoots straight to H3 supply without retest of golden pocket, offload half of spot at first target and the rest in equal amounts at the next 3 targets
3. Price nukes > HODL
Additional scenarios-
1. A clean retest of either the LTF flipped support at $101.64 or the top of the golden pocket, I will add to my long position for a short swing trade with stops below the HL and target at the top of H3 supply
2. If price falls back into the golden pocket but finds support along the diagonal trendline I will still add to my long position on a reclaim and retest of the same zone with the same target and stops
Invalidations:
1. Dropping back into the D3 demand would make this look more like a range than an uptrend, I'll scrap this and look to play the range
2. Given the 2nd additional scenario, a rejection off a LH and I will move stops to BE
Comment:
Cutting some more longs here. Price reached the first target, I expected the thin VP would act as a vacuum towards target 2. We got a prev. weekly high right at target 1, and just had a failed break above. Now price is trading back below on the H1 chart. RSI and MACD suggest this rally is losing momentum. I'll be looking to scale back in around $101.64 if we get back down there.