Levels:
Entry: 56300
SL: 58557, eg just above the Aug 30 high 2257
TP1: 52240
TP2: 48420
Why:
(1) Technical rejection of the August 30 highs - eg. 3.4% rally followed by complete reversal to opening. N.B: This on a backdrop of a USDZAR (orange) and WTIOIL (red) rally.
(2) Potential overextention of the recent USDZAR rally.
(3) Alternative equities trade to shorting an oil contact, as it approaches the sell zone. (70-70.50 for the CL1!)
What could go right:
(1) Rand and Oil are reversing and taking SASOL with it.
(2) General bearish bias for EMs follows through.
(3) Fundamentally (a) escalation of strike action in the first days of September and (b) unexpected supply interruptions in their ZA operations (coal or electricity).
What could go wrong:
(a) Continued (over- :-) ) extention of ZA equities of which SASOl profits.
(b) Escalation of the USDZAR devalutation. All things being equal, it's a rand hedge for local pension funds.
(c) Escalation of global oil futures due to X, Y and Z
Sample Trade:
Risk: R5000
Size: 220
Profit: R17400 (based on TP1)
R/R: 3.49
Entry: 56300
SL: 58557, eg just above the Aug 30 high 2257
TP1: 52240
TP2: 48420
Why:
(1) Technical rejection of the August 30 highs - eg. 3.4% rally followed by complete reversal to opening. N.B: This on a backdrop of a USDZAR (orange) and WTIOIL (red) rally.
(2) Potential overextention of the recent USDZAR rally.
(3) Alternative equities trade to shorting an oil contact, as it approaches the sell zone. (70-70.50 for the CL1!)
What could go right:
(1) Rand and Oil are reversing and taking SASOL with it.
(2) General bearish bias for EMs follows through.
(3) Fundamentally (a) escalation of strike action in the first days of September and (b) unexpected supply interruptions in their ZA operations (coal or electricity).
What could go wrong:
(a) Continued (over- :-) ) extention of ZA equities of which SASOl profits.
(b) Escalation of the USDZAR devalutation. All things being equal, it's a rand hedge for local pension funds.
(c) Escalation of global oil futures due to X, Y and Z
Sample Trade:
Risk: R5000
Size: 220
Profit: R17400 (based on TP1)
R/R: 3.49
Comment:
moved SL to high of Sep 20. Things seem to have gotten some momentum again. If it goes against me, a small profit is booked.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Stopped out on high of Sep 20. Marginal profit.
Let's see what the rest of the week brings.