hungry_hippo

SMSI profitable and growing again

Long
NASDAQ:SMSI   Smith Micro Software, Inc.
Got in AH at $4, if it fades the gap to below $3.8, then I'm doubling down.

This has a chance to be the next INS, high growth rate and ridiculous margins. Current quarter earnings of $0.08 puts P/E ratio at 11 even at current AH price of $4.35.

If they can continue this growth we're talking about justifying a P/E of 50 so possibility of heading back up over $50. Look at the 20 year chart on this, lol. Holding long term in 401k.
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Damn it, already at $4.5 AH, I'm doubling up if it fades half the gap to below $4.
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I put in limit orders to add at $4 and $3.75 in case the market tanks and this dips.

Looked over the numbers yesterday, $.5M contribution from selling an old software program, everything else looks good. They provide SafePath for Sprint and Boost Mobile. High margin because Sprint sells it for them.
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Looks like it's gonna open around $4.7. Not sure if any of my adds will go through today.

I bet it whipsaws and throws a doji today though.
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Added some here at $4.5, hate to average up but I really like the numbers. Not adding any more unless it drops next week. Decided I'm going all in on this one... trying to get to 5k shares.
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Damn it, I thought it was gonna head to $4. Looking at the daily now, guess $4.3 makes sense as the low, the chart looks like it makes sense.

Forming a doji here as expected, should ip again on Monday to attract short sellers, and we'll get a repeat of March where it climbs up after all the sellers are gone and we get a short squeeze.

Like I said, I looked over the numbers, the non-GAAP num,bers should be used to project P/E ratio because it doesn't includ ethe $.5M one time gain. Even then, we're talking $0.08/quarter, at $4.7 forward P/E is 15.

Revenue is subscription model, so unless they start losing customers revenues are bound to go higher.
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11M shares traded today, that's half the float!

Short sellers must of been diving in like crazy to cause that. Setting up for a squeeze, it really doesn't make any sense to sell this until we get to at least 25 P/E which is $8, might even make it to 50 P/E like INS so my target is $16 before the end of the year.
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21.55M shares float, 14.4M shares traded today. At this rate, we'll get 100% of float traded in one day!

There's no way that all the shares are coming from investors selling, I bet half these shares are short sellers, setting up for a squeeze.

My plan now is to add 1k at $4.5, 1k at $4, 2.5k at $3.75 if this drops at all next week. Then I'm all in... virtually no way this will close the gap to $3.45.
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WTF, went to lunch (west coast) and came back to this?

Way overbought on every time frame but we're hitting that 100% float I was talking about earlier. Tons of short sellers now trapped, I bet millions of shares in a low float company that's usually thinly traded. That being said, I'm still expecting a dip next week, buy points remain the same.

Smart money says sell half here, but I'm only half in to start with so I'll just wait for $10. Not like I can lose money on this trade at this point.
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Holy mother of all pumptardedness, 65% jump in one day. Traded 99% of float, there is absolutely no way that happens without naked shorting, they are going to be scrambling to find shares to borrow next week before the 3 day settlement rule.

Gonna be interesting next week. Not selling until $10, still planning on adding if it tanks, the fundamentals are too good to ignore. (I'm ignoring all indicators at this point, they all showed sell signals all day.) $10 is forward P/E of 32 based on this quarter's nonGAAP earnings.

Note: $10 might not happen until next earnings report, but who cares. The shares are in my 401k, I've got plenty of time.
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Added more this morning. Screw the charts, strictly on a fundamental basis you're not going to find many profitable, high margin, high growth companies trading at 15 PE. Buy and wait until next earnings.

If I wasn't a chart reader, I probably would have added more at $4.5, I really thought it was going to doji on Friday. Not gonna worry about chart patterns or TA on this one, buy and hold....
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BTFD! Lol.

Gonna melt up for a couple of weeks on a short squeeze, I think.
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Intraday H&S pattern with $5.25 target, my next buy point. Might load up for a short term trade if it goes that low today. I don't see it happening unless the market tanks…. but that's what the chart says.
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Looking at the 2 day chart, looks like it could retest support at $4.7. Will add there if it goes down. Will be my final add, if not, I'm gonna let this waffle around until next earnings.

Volume has dropped off, and speculative investors will leave, probably melt downwards this week. In it for the long haul, so doesn't really matter.
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