I will start with the potential reward. Going back to the high in 1998, and measuring up until the ATH, it took around 13 years for 560% profit. If that pattern continues again, the next high will be around $300/oz, or 500% profit from the ATH we currently have. (Note I am not predicting that this will happen, this is just the best case scenario that I can see) If you were to purchase right now at our current low point, that would mean over 2000% profit in the next 7 years. This is assuming the ratios are consistent. Reward for silver would be up to 20x profits within the next 7-10 years. Even half of that would make me extremely happy.
Now let's talk about the risk. The very worst case scenario would be that you lose everything. That means for the first time in over 10,000 years, silver would lose all of it's value, and you will have nothing left of this investment. The more likely risk is that we drop to the mining cost, and stay close to it for long term. The lowest estimate I have seen for the mining cost is 5.80. The highest is around $15 and ounce to mine. As we approach mining cost, we could go relatively flat. probably with light bounces as companies go under, causing a decrease in supply. this would likely cause a bounce, which may be followed by more sells pushing it back to mining cost. The reasonable investment loss to expect would be a drop to $6. If you buy now, you could lose 60% of your investment.
Comparing risk to reward, the worst case I could personally see is a 60% loss when you need to pull out and can't hold. Best case is 20x profits in less than 10 years. Are you willing to risk 60% of your investment for a potential 20x reward? If you are, now is the perfect time to buy silver.
(Note: These numbers only apply to the current price. If price goes lower, risk lowers with it, and reward goes up. At $6, the risk is almost nothing, and the reward is up to 50x profits.)
Now let's talk about the risk. The very worst case scenario would be that you lose everything. That means for the first time in over 10,000 years, silver would lose all of it's value, and you will have nothing left of this investment. The more likely risk is that we drop to the mining cost, and stay close to it for long term. The lowest estimate I have seen for the mining cost is 5.80. The highest is around $15 and ounce to mine. As we approach mining cost, we could go relatively flat. probably with light bounces as companies go under, causing a decrease in supply. this would likely cause a bounce, which may be followed by more sells pushing it back to mining cost. The reasonable investment loss to expect would be a drop to $6. If you buy now, you could lose 60% of your investment.
Comparing risk to reward, the worst case I could personally see is a 60% loss when you need to pull out and can't hold. Best case is 20x profits in less than 10 years. Are you willing to risk 60% of your investment for a potential 20x reward? If you are, now is the perfect time to buy silver.
(Note: These numbers only apply to the current price. If price goes lower, risk lowers with it, and reward goes up. At $6, the risk is almost nothing, and the reward is up to 50x profits.)