According to the correction levels of the first waves, formation or pattern usually reveals.
When we look at the first wave, it is seen that it returns from 0.618. In this case, if we draw a scenario over Elliot Wave, it is seen that the current HH exceeds 1.618. In this case, we can expect another correction wave from here.
If we go over the patterns and formations that may occur because there was no previous supply zone at these prices, we can interpret the Harmonic Pattern B leg as 0.786 at most. We can think that the correction can occur up to a maximum of 0.786. But in order for it to extend up to 0.786, the volume of the shib must fall to an extern level. I don't think that can happen.
For this to be possible, btc must experience a rapid decline below 50K. However, this may be possible. Or the current price should increase a little more to 00068 and the price should return from there.
When we look at the indicator data to see if this is possible, I think it is not very possible. Rsi is currently at 87 when measuring. It can go up to 100, this is possible. In this case, it can come to the level I said in price. According to the money flow indicator data, they are still at a level that will allow for an increase. My example Cmf lasts up to 0.50. It always exploded after 0, 40. Considering that it is now at 0.19, there is no problem in its rise in terms of CMF.
However, this does not seem possible in terms of Trend indicators. ADX Momentum and Aroon are almost at the final level they can be right now. I don't know if it will go any further. Frankly, there is no historical data for other commodities that I remember about how far they can go. I don't know if there is. Generally, adx 40 returns when other indicators support around 50. Currently at level 66. In other words, if we evaluate the trend with trend indicators, the Elliot 3rd wave trend should turn and the 4th wave should be happening now.
Based on all these, I will dwell on the possibility that the limits of the price retracement may be at a level between 0.382 and 0.5.
This measurement is the image that supports our Elliot idea;
A correction at 0.618 followed by 1.618 has been surpassed. But the thing is, 1, the correction length of the wave is too much as you can see. In this case, we can theoretically expect the correction of wave 3 to be shorter or less than half the distance of 1 and 2.
When we make a data-independent graphical measurement, considering that the 1st wave is 170px long and the 2nd correction may be in half of this, this corresponds to the fib 0.382 levels.
Now, when we want to re-measure the correction as a harmonic pattern, waves 2 - 3 - 4 and 5 can reveal a harmonic pattern for us. When we measure this by constructing it, we can estimate the price levels on average.
The most common bat and crab patterns with 0.382 . When we make an evaluation and simulation on these two, we come across pullback price levels between 1.618 and 2.618
Even if prices were to retrecament to 2.618, it would not be possible without encountering resistance at 1.618. In this case, 1.618 can be considered as a new entry position and considered as a six-stop or partial buy.
The length of these patterns can get longer or shorter depending on the current BTC movement. The point to note here is the price movements of btc.
If all of our assumptions are supported by price movements, the Elliot 5-A-B-C triad will reveal a new harmonic pattern and start a new trend. When C is reached, the indicator values will be rested enough to remove a new trend.
p.s NOTE: This is not investment advice.
When we look at the first wave, it is seen that it returns from 0.618. In this case, if we draw a scenario over Elliot Wave, it is seen that the current HH exceeds 1.618. In this case, we can expect another correction wave from here.
If we go over the patterns and formations that may occur because there was no previous supply zone at these prices, we can interpret the Harmonic Pattern B leg as 0.786 at most. We can think that the correction can occur up to a maximum of 0.786. But in order for it to extend up to 0.786, the volume of the shib must fall to an extern level. I don't think that can happen.
For this to be possible, btc must experience a rapid decline below 50K. However, this may be possible. Or the current price should increase a little more to 00068 and the price should return from there.
When we look at the indicator data to see if this is possible, I think it is not very possible. Rsi is currently at 87 when measuring. It can go up to 100, this is possible. In this case, it can come to the level I said in price. According to the money flow indicator data, they are still at a level that will allow for an increase. My example Cmf lasts up to 0.50. It always exploded after 0, 40. Considering that it is now at 0.19, there is no problem in its rise in terms of CMF.
However, this does not seem possible in terms of Trend indicators. ADX Momentum and Aroon are almost at the final level they can be right now. I don't know if it will go any further. Frankly, there is no historical data for other commodities that I remember about how far they can go. I don't know if there is. Generally, adx 40 returns when other indicators support around 50. Currently at level 66. In other words, if we evaluate the trend with trend indicators, the Elliot 3rd wave trend should turn and the 4th wave should be happening now.
Based on all these, I will dwell on the possibility that the limits of the price retracement may be at a level between 0.382 and 0.5.
This measurement is the image that supports our Elliot idea;
A correction at 0.618 followed by 1.618 has been surpassed. But the thing is, 1, the correction length of the wave is too much as you can see. In this case, we can theoretically expect the correction of wave 3 to be shorter or less than half the distance of 1 and 2.
When we make a data-independent graphical measurement, considering that the 1st wave is 170px long and the 2nd correction may be in half of this, this corresponds to the fib 0.382 levels.
Now, when we want to re-measure the correction as a harmonic pattern, waves 2 - 3 - 4 and 5 can reveal a harmonic pattern for us. When we measure this by constructing it, we can estimate the price levels on average.
The most common bat and crab patterns with 0.382 . When we make an evaluation and simulation on these two, we come across pullback price levels between 1.618 and 2.618
Even if prices were to retrecament to 2.618, it would not be possible without encountering resistance at 1.618. In this case, 1.618 can be considered as a new entry position and considered as a six-stop or partial buy.
The length of these patterns can get longer or shorter depending on the current BTC movement. The point to note here is the price movements of btc.
If all of our assumptions are supported by price movements, the Elliot 5-A-B-C triad will reveal a new harmonic pattern and start a new trend. When C is reached, the indicator values will be rested enough to remove a new trend.
p.s NOTE: This is not investment advice.