Ravencoin/Bitcoin Repeating Falling Wedge.
Ravencoin has a fairly predictable pattern of creating sharp falling wedge and then breaking out of them violently. There was even another one that is not reflected on this graph as it happened before the coin was added to Binance.
I don't have time for a very long analysis but as a long time miner and holder of RVN it seems from my experience we are due for a recovery. Mining RVN at an average electricity cost of $0.10/kWh nets you a pretty fat operating loss of -$0.11-14/day per GPU (1070-1080Ti) while competing coins like BTG and Beam on Nicehash or even ETH can net you $0.10-$0.25/day in profit after energy. Ravencoin holds a fairly large and fundamentally sound community with a pretty solid development team backing it. I know there are quite a few Ravencoin miners out there who are taking advantage of this low difficulty to scoop up and accumulate coins on the cheap for the eventual rebound. I know because I used to be one of them.
Before Bitcoin recovered in mid 2019 RVN had experienced a surge like many other alt-coins. I mined and held RVN on and off all through the fall and winter of 2018 into Spring of 2019. It went from the 200-300 range after breaking out of it's loOoOoOoOong falling wedge pattern up to peaks in the 1400-1600 satoshi range. I imagine now that bitcoin has reached a much higher level in terms of fiat we will see a similar pattern although at a smaller scale (less satoshis). My targets are split somewhere between the 0.236, 0.5, and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels.
I don't have time for a very long analysis but as a long time miner and holder of RVN it seems from my experience we are due for a recovery. Mining RVN at an average electricity cost of $0.10/kWh nets you a pretty fat operating loss of -$0.11-14/day per GPU (1070-1080Ti) while competing coins like BTG and Beam on Nicehash or even ETH can net you $0.10-$0.25/day in profit after energy. Ravencoin holds a fairly large and fundamentally sound community with a pretty solid development team backing it. I know there are quite a few Ravencoin miners out there who are taking advantage of this low difficulty to scoop up and accumulate coins on the cheap for the eventual rebound. I know because I used to be one of them.
Before Bitcoin recovered in mid 2019 RVN had experienced a surge like many other alt-coins. I mined and held RVN on and off all through the fall and winter of 2018 into Spring of 2019. It went from the 200-300 range after breaking out of it's loOoOoOoOong falling wedge pattern up to peaks in the 1400-1600 satoshi range. I imagine now that bitcoin has reached a much higher level in terms of fiat we will see a similar pattern although at a smaller scale (less satoshis). My targets are split somewhere between the 0.236, 0.5, and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels.
Trade active:
The x16rv2 hardfork was a success! I switched over my miners the morning of release and watched as network Hashrate fell from 25-27 TH/s to ~5 TH/s and Difficulty fell from 350k to 100k. Ravencoin instantly became the most profitable coin for GPU miners again and remains in the top 5.
Took ~1/4 of my position size in profit around 400 satoshi level to be safe and secure some gains. My other take profit orders are much higher up in the 750-1400 range based on my fibs. Time will tell whether I actually have the will power to wait that long. I will be playing it by ear and react to the market; if bitcoin rebounds and sucks attention away from alts I may sell the rest. If bitcoin continues to fall I will ride the RVN/BTC ratio as it continues to climb and stack away BTC for the eventual recovery.
As they say, "Trade shitcoins to get more bitcoins!"
Took ~1/4 of my position size in profit around 400 satoshi level to be safe and secure some gains. My other take profit orders are much higher up in the 750-1400 range based on my fibs. Time will tell whether I actually have the will power to wait that long. I will be playing it by ear and react to the market; if bitcoin rebounds and sucks attention away from alts I may sell the rest. If bitcoin continues to fall I will ride the RVN/BTC ratio as it continues to climb and stack away BTC for the eventual recovery.
As they say, "Trade shitcoins to get more bitcoins!"
Trade closed manually:
10/10/19 12:57:10 - Closed 1/4 position @ 450 satoshis and re-entered 416 sat 12 hours later. 3/4 position remaining
10/12/19 18:48:31 - Closed 1/4 position @ 462 satoshis again; 1/2 position remaining. Entered bids with 1/2 position profits @ 393 and 397 for 4hr 200 EMA and trendline retrace.
10/12/19 18:48:31 - Closed 1/4 position @ 462 satoshis again; 1/2 position remaining. Entered bids with 1/2 position profits @ 393 and 397 for 4hr 200 EMA and trendline retrace.
Trade active:
Trade active:
Right on time! 393 and 397 Targets reached, both of my 1/4 position size bids have been filled! I am back in 100% of my position with a new average entry of around 350-360 sats up from about 325-330.
4HR RSI and Stochastic RSI look good for reversals and either at or approaching oversold.
This area coincides with the Daily RSI @ 396, the Daily Kijun @ 383, and the orange up-trend line @ 390 that has been supporting us since below 300.
4HR RSI and Stochastic RSI look good for reversals and either at or approaching oversold.
This area coincides with the Daily RSI @ 396, the Daily Kijun @ 383, and the orange up-trend line @ 390 that has been supporting us since below 300.
Comment:
Typo Correction (20 EMA not RSI)* - "This area coincides with the Daily 20 EMA @ 396, the Daily Kijun @ 383, and the orange up-trend line @ 390 that has been supporting us since below 300."
Trade closed: target reached:
412 sat ask filled. Profit +4%
Previous entries were 393 and 397; bid right at the Daily 20 EMA and my ask at 412 was placed on the Daily 50 EMA.
3/4 Position remaining.
Previous entries were 393 and 397; bid right at the Daily 20 EMA and my ask at 412 was placed on the Daily 50 EMA.
3/4 Position remaining.
Comment:
RVN/BTC dumped on the Bitcoin rally; I planned on closing out my longs that I opened around 390 when I noticed we were failing to break above EMA's on the 4hr @ around 380-390 sats.
I didn't end up closing in time however, so I still hold my 3/4 position. I made a decent % of coin on my scalps above 400 sats however I am now back at or below my entry on my original positions still hodl'ing.
"I will be playing it by ear and react to the market; if bitcoin rebounds and sucks attention away from alts I may sell the rest. If bitcoin continues to fall I will ride the RVN/BTC ratio as it continues to climb and stack away BTC for the eventual recovery."
In hindsight I should have listened to my gut and sold my alt/btc pairs in preparation for the impending BTC rally. Bitcoin tapped my second Take Profit target at ~$7,650 for my BTC short prediction from the 10-14k rally. I expected a reversal around this point as it was an important 0.618 fibonnaci retracement.
"@Meteorite777 wrote:
7300 is bottom
potentially
s3.amazonaws.com/tra...shots/s/saRFnUbG.png
I missed it
Look at bright green target
I just made a new fib from 13788 to 3333
0.618 is 7327
"
I didn't end up closing in time however, so I still hold my 3/4 position. I made a decent % of coin on my scalps above 400 sats however I am now back at or below my entry on my original positions still hodl'ing.
"I will be playing it by ear and react to the market; if bitcoin rebounds and sucks attention away from alts I may sell the rest. If bitcoin continues to fall I will ride the RVN/BTC ratio as it continues to climb and stack away BTC for the eventual recovery."
In hindsight I should have listened to my gut and sold my alt/btc pairs in preparation for the impending BTC rally. Bitcoin tapped my second Take Profit target at ~$7,650 for my BTC short prediction from the 10-14k rally. I expected a reversal around this point as it was an important 0.618 fibonnaci retracement.
"@Meteorite777 wrote:
7300 is bottom
potentially
s3.amazonaws.com/tra...shots/s/saRFnUbG.png
I missed it
Look at bright green target
I just made a new fib from 13788 to 3333
0.618 is 7327
"
Trade closed: target reached:
Ravencoin puked and rallied since my last update in November.
I mentioned that I had a feeling to close @ 380-390 when we lost EMA support but missed my opportunity window to get out at a good price on my remaining positions and ended up HODL'ing. It would have been great to snipe an entry on the wick to 270 sats or a re-entry back at my initial price of around 330 and congratulations to anyone who was able to!
As it turns out though since breaking the downward sloping Daily 20 EMA around ~300; we continued to rally and smash through the 50, 100, 200 EMA's as well at ~325, ~350, and ~400 satoshis respectively.
Over the past day (12/7/2019) we have rallied from 370 to 450 with Raven currently trading around ~430 satoshis. I still held 3/4 of my Ravencoin position after my various scalps on the last rally and today 2 of my previous asks were still open and filled leaving me with 1/4 of my Ravencoin remaining. I think i'll hold onto this for a while and let it ride. I have a long-term lambo target up around 800 Satoshis for the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement which coincides with the uptrend line of the previous pump from Oct-Nov; otherwise 1100-1150 Satoshis for the 0.618 Fib.
- 1/4 Position sold @ 394 RVN/BTC
-1/4 Position sold @ 442 RVN/BTC
-----------------------------------------
-1/4 Position left: Target 800-1150 RVN/BTC
s3.amazonaws.com/tra...shots/h/haKUUhHI.png
I mentioned that I had a feeling to close @ 380-390 when we lost EMA support but missed my opportunity window to get out at a good price on my remaining positions and ended up HODL'ing. It would have been great to snipe an entry on the wick to 270 sats or a re-entry back at my initial price of around 330 and congratulations to anyone who was able to!
As it turns out though since breaking the downward sloping Daily 20 EMA around ~300; we continued to rally and smash through the 50, 100, 200 EMA's as well at ~325, ~350, and ~400 satoshis respectively.
Over the past day (12/7/2019) we have rallied from 370 to 450 with Raven currently trading around ~430 satoshis. I still held 3/4 of my Ravencoin position after my various scalps on the last rally and today 2 of my previous asks were still open and filled leaving me with 1/4 of my Ravencoin remaining. I think i'll hold onto this for a while and let it ride. I have a long-term lambo target up around 800 Satoshis for the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement which coincides with the uptrend line of the previous pump from Oct-Nov; otherwise 1100-1150 Satoshis for the 0.618 Fib.
- 1/4 Position sold @ 394 RVN/BTC
-1/4 Position sold @ 442 RVN/BTC
-----------------------------------------
-1/4 Position left: Target 800-1150 RVN/BTC
s3.amazonaws.com/tra...shots/h/haKUUhHI.png